Karviná 2-1 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karviná at 35%, yet the head-to-head data favours Sigma Olomouc — this Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Městský Stadión plays host to Karviná versus Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga (matchday 14). Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Karviná's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Karviná's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Sigma Olomouc have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Sigma Olomouc have the stronger record — 4 wins to Karviná's 0, with 0 draws.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Karviná 0–2 Sigma Olomouc — a Sigma Olomouc win.
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Karviná goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 46% versus Sigma Olomouc 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 52% | Sigma Olomouc 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.19 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.886 / defence 0.850 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.102 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.248. Data: built from Karviná's last 42 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 42.
Result probabilities: Karviná 35% | Draw 32% | Sigma Olomouc 34%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.89 | Draw 3.15 | Sigma Olomouc 2.97. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Karviná as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karviná if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Karviná 40% (last 10 home games) | Sigma Olomouc 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 14 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 35% | Draw 32% | Sigma Olomouc 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Karviná 1.19 / Sigma Olomouc 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.886 / def 0.850 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.102 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Karviná (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Sigma Olomouc xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc FAQs
What time does Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc?
Karviná 2 - 1 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 14) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 35% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Karviná and Sigma Olomouc will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Karviná's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Sigma Olomouc's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (1.10x) against Karviná's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Karviná's last 42 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
35%
2.89
32%
3.15
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.36
1.17
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
11%
9.30
10%
9.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Karviná and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Karviná and 1.17 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Karviná come into this having played 44 games, going 13W 11D 20L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.27 PPG from 44 outings (15W 11D 18L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Karviná against 1.27 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Karviná's home form reads 7W 6D 9L across their last 22 home games, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.05 points per game from their last 22 away games (6W 5D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Karviná are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.36 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc in 66%.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Karviná (Home) vs Sigma Olomouc (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Karviná
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc Form FAQs
What form are Karviná and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 13W 11D 20L in their last 44 games (1.14 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 15W 11D 18L in their last 44 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Karviná's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.23 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 23 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sigma Olomouc have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won Sigma Olomouc 4-0 Karviná on 23 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Karviná
2
Draws
6
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Sigma Olomouc?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Karviná have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 May 2026: Sigma Olomouc 4-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 41%, Sigma Olomouc 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Karviná) and 50% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Karviná keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Karviná have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Karviná and Sigma Olomouc matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Karviná's recent matches and 68% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Karviná and Sigma Olomouc matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Karviná's recent games and 50% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Sigma Olomouc matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Karviná's recent matches and 82% of Sigma Olomouc's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Karviná edge out Sigma Olomouc 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat Sigma Olomouc 2-1 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.19 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.17 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Karviná beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.89 / defence 0.85 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.10 / defence 0.99, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 35% | Draw 32% | Sigma Olomouc 34%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 52%, Sigma Olomouc 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 1.14 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.