Karviná 0-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karviná at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karviná vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 11 as Karviná welcome Hradec Králové to Městský Stadión. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 October 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Karviná — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná at Městský Stadión this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský Stadión.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Karviná at 1.40 PPG versus Hradec Králové's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Karviná, 2 for Hradec Králové and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with Hradec Králové winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Karviná in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 48% versus Hradec Králové 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 54% | Hradec Králové 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.03 xG and Hradec Králové 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.716 / defence 0.932 | Hradec Králové attack 0.713 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.187. Karviná's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Karviná games / 39 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 40% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 27%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Hradec Králové 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Hradec Králové's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Karviná at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karviná offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.82 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 40% | Hradec Králové 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 40% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Karviná 1.03 / Hradec Králové 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.716 / def 0.932 | Hradec Králové attack 0.713 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Karviná (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Hradec Králové xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Karviná vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Hradec Králové?
Karviná 0 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Karviná vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Hradec Králové part of?
Karviná vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 40% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Karviná and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Hradec Králové?
Record (4 meetings): Karviná 1W | Draws 1 | Hradec Králové 2W.
What form are Karviná and Hradec Králové in?
Karviná (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Karviná's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Karviná's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
40%
2.49
33%
3.05
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Karviná xG
Total xG
1.82
0.79
Hradec Králové xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 12.8 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Karviná and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Karviná and 0.79 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Karviná come into this having played 44 games, going 12W 10D 22L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.39 PPG from 44 outings (17W 10D 17L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Karviná on 1.05 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Karviná's home form reads 6W 6D 10L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 0.82 points per game from 22 outings (4W 6D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Karviná are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.14 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 12W 10D 22L in their last 44 games (1.05 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 17W 10D 17L in their last 44 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Hradec Králové away?
Karviná's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.09 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Karviná or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Karviná have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2025, when Hradec Králové won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Karviná's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Karviná
3
Draws
4
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Karviná have won 3, Hradec Králové have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Karviná 4-3 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 46%, Hradec Králové 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Karviná) and 32% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Karviná keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Karviná have failed to score in 36% of games; Hradec Králové in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Karviná's recent matches and 41% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karviná vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Karviná's recent games and 32% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Karviná's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 11, as Karviná and Hradec Králové drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.03 xG and Hradec Králové 0.79 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Karviná fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.72 / defence 0.93 against Hradec Králové attack 0.71 / defence 1.03, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 40% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 27%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 54%, Hradec Králové 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 1.05 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.