Hradec Králové 1-1 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 12 as Hradec Králové welcome Sigma Olomouc to Malšovická Aréna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 October 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hradec Králové — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové's home record at Malšovická Aréna: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Malšovická Aréna. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at Malšovická Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Hradec Králové) versus 1.70 (Sigma Olomouc). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Hradec Králové, 1 for Sigma Olomouc and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 3–1 with Hradec Králové winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 43% versus Sigma Olomouc 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 38% | Sigma Olomouc 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.45 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.055 / defence 0.804 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.109 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.229. Data: 40 Hradec Králové games / 40 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 44% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 27%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Sigma Olomouc 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 40% | Sigma Olomouc 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 44% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Hradec Králové 1.45 / Sigma Olomouc 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 1.055 / def 0.804 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.109 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Sigma Olomouc xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Hradec Králové 1 - 1 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 44% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (6 meetings): Hradec Králové 3W | Draws 2 | Sigma Olomouc 1W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 1.05x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
44%
2.30
29%
3.39
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.54
1.09
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
6%
15.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.09 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 16W 10D 16L from 42 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 18L across 42 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.38 PPG, Sigma Olomouc on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 12W 4D 5L from 21 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 6W 4D 11L across 21 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc in 67%.
Defensively: Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 16W 10D 16L in their last 42 games (1.38 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 15W 9D 18L in their last 42 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.90 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
2
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 5, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 48%, Sigma Olomouc 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Hradec Králové) and 52% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Hradec Králové's games and 67% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 52% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 12, as Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.45 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.09 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 1.05 / defence 0.80 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.11 / defence 1.04, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 44% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 27%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 38%, Sigma Olomouc 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.38 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.