Hradec Králové 1-1 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hradec Králové and Plzen meet at Malšovická Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hradec Králové have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové's home record at Malšovická Aréna: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at Malšovická Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Plzen's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Plzen have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Plzen arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Hradec Králové, 2 for Plzen and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Hradec Králové half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Plzen half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 51% versus Plzen 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 49% | Plzen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.44 xG and Plzen 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.959 / defence 1.020 | Plzen attack 1.396 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.179. Plzen have an above-average attack strength of 1.396 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Hradec Králové games / 44 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 33% | Draw 24% | Plzen 43%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | Plzen 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plzen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 50% | Plzen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 33% | Draw 24% | Plzen 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Hradec Králové 1.44 / Plzen 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.959 / def 1.020 | Plzen attack 1.396 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Plzen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Plzen xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Plzen kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Plzen kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Plzen?
Hradec Králové 1 - 1 Plzen.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Plzen part of?
Hradec Králové vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 33% chance of winning, Plzen a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Hradec Králové and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Plzen?
Record (4 meetings): Hradec Králové 1W | Draws 1 | Plzen 2W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Plzen in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Plzen (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hradec Králové's attack rating (0.96) and Plzen's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Plzen's attack (1.40x) against Hradec Králové's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
33%
3.03
24%
4.24
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
3.11
1.68
Plzen xG
3.03
33%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
19%
5.35
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
6%
16.25
10%
9.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.7 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.68 for Plzen, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Hradec Králové have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 17W 10D 22L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen's form line: 26W 8D 15L from 49 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hradec Králové.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hradec Králové have posted 1.30 PPG from 23 outings (9W 3D 11L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 11W 4D 8L from 23 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.90 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Plzen in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 17W 10D 22L in their last 49 games (1.24 PPG), while Plzen have gone 26W 8D 15L in their last 49 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.30 PPG; Plzen away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Plzen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won 0-3 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hradec Králové have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Plzen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 1, Plzen have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Plzen 3-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 52%, Plzen 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Hradec Králové) and 65% (Plzen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Hradec Králové have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Plzen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Hradec Králové's games and 61% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hradec Králové vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Hradec Králové's matches and 65% of Plzen's.
Do Hradec Králové and Plzen tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Plzen in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové and Plzen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové and Plzen finished level at 1-1 at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.44 xG and Plzen 1.68 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.96 / defence 1.02 against Plzen attack 1.40 / defence 1.00, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 33% | Draw 24% | Plzen 43%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 49%, Plzen 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.