FK Jablonec 2-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FK Jablonec face Pardubice.

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Analysis

Pardubice make the trip to Stadion Střelnice to face FK Jablonec in Czech Liga (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Sunday 26 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.

Form

FK Jablonec (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

FK Jablonec at home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Pardubice have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, Pardubice have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for FK Jablonec, 0.90 for Pardubice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 29 Jul 2023, ended FK Jablonec 0–0 Pardubice — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

FK Jablonec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 62% versus Pardubice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 52% | Pardubice 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.38 xG and Pardubice 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.876 / defence 1.003 | Pardubice attack 0.905 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.178. Data: built from FK Jablonec's last 45 games and Pardubice's last 45.

Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 44% | Draw 27% | Pardubice 29%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.28 | Draw 3.71 | Pardubice 3.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FK Jablonec 60% (last 10 home games) | Pardubice 40% (last 10 away games).

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