Hradec Králové 1-1 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Karviná fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host Karviná at Malšovická Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 March 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hradec Králové — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Malšovická Aréna, Hradec Králové have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Karviná have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Karviná have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hradec Králové 1.20 PPG, Karviná 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Hradec Králové, 1 for Karviná and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Hradec Králové in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Karviná in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 43% versus Karviná 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 40% | Karviná 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 2.26 xG and Karviná 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.990 / defence 0.904 | Karviná attack 1.005 / defence 1.533. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.175. Karviná bring a strong defensive rating of 1.533 — this is suppressing Hradec Králové's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Hradec Králové games / 53 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 63% | Draw 21% | Karviná 16%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Karviná 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Hradec Králové (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.26 / 1.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 40% | Karviná 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Mar 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 63% | Draw 21% | Karviná 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 60% | xG Hradec Králové 2.26 / Karviná 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.990 / def 0.904 | Karviná attack 1.005 / def 1.533 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Karviná xG
60%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Karviná kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Karviná kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 9 March 2025 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Hradec Králové 1 - 1 Karviná.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Karviná part of?
Hradec Králové vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 63% chance of winning, Karviná a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Hradec Králové and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Karviná?
Record (5 meetings): Hradec Králové 2W | Draws 2 | Karviná 1W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Karviná in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Karviná (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.99x the league average against Karviná's defence at 1.53x — combine the two and it projects 2.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Karviná's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.75
16%
6.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
3.33
1.07
Karviná xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
6.39
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
10%
9.62
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
2%
61.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.07 for Karviná, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové come into this having played 58 games, going 21W 16D 21L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 1.07 PPG from 58 outings (16W 14D 28L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.36 PPG, Karviná on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hradec Králové's home form reads 13W 8D 7L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Karviná have taken 0.86 points per game from 28 outings (6W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.09 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Karviná in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 21W 16D 21L in their last 58 games (1.36 PPG), while Karviná have gone 16W 14D 28L in their last 58 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Karviná away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.68 PPG; Karviná away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Karviná been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Karviná in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Karviná runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Karviná go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2025, when Hradec Králové won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Karviná specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
3
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Karviná?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 4, Karviná have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Karviná 4-3 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Karviná?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 50%, Karviná 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Hradec Králové) and 64% (Karviná).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Karviná in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Karviná?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 57% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 64% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Karviná tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Karviná in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové and Karviná share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 25, as Hradec Králové and Karviná drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 2.26 xG and Karviná 1.07 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hradec Králové fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.99 / defence 0.90 against Karviná attack 1.00 / defence 1.53, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 63% | Draw 21% | Karviná 16%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 40%, Karviná 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Karviná's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.36 PPG, Karviná 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Karviná (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.