FK Jablonec 1-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Strelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 7 December 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Strelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bohemians 1905 have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in FK Jablonec's favour (1.70 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Bohemians 1905 hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with FK Jablonec winning.
It is worth noting that Bohemians 1905 have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 41% versus Bohemians 1905 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 45% | Bohemians 1905 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.40 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.077 / defence 1.071 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.870 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.276. Data: 47 FK Jablonec games / 47 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 31%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Bohemians 1905 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Bohemians 1905 lead the H2H ledger, but FK Jablonec carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 60% | Bohemians 1905 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Strelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Dec 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG FK Jablonec 1.40 / Bohemians 1905 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.077 / def 1.071 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.870 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Bohemians 1905 xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 December 2025 at Stadion Strelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
FK Jablonec 1 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Strelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 41% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
Record (8 meetings): FK Jablonec 2W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1905 5W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.87x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.52
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.58
1.19
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
12%
8.08
8%
13.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.19 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FK Jablonec come into this having played 51 games, going 27W 11D 13L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.16 PPG from 51 outings (15W 14D 22L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
FK Jablonec's home form reads 13W 7D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.25 points per game from 24 outings (8W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.00 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 27W 11D 13L in their last 51 games (1.80 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 15W 14D 22L in their last 51 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.92 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.25 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 0-3 on 31 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
5
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 3, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when Bohemians 1905 1-1 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 46%, Bohemians 1905 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FK Jablonec) and 42% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 42% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 42% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Bohemians 1905 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Bohemians 1905 1-0 at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.40 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.19 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians 1905 landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.08 / defence 1.07 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.87 / defence 0.93, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 31%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 45%, Bohemians 1905 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.