České Budějovice 0-3 Teplice – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov plays host to České Budějovice versus Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 9 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

České Budějovice (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

České Budějovice's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Teplice have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for České Budějovice, 0.80 for Teplice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for České Budějovice, 1 for Teplice and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with České Budějovice winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

České Budějovice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 53% versus Teplice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 58% | Teplice 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 2.07 xG and Teplice 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.866 / defence 0.952 | Teplice attack 0.839 / defence 1.492. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.223. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.492 — this is suppressing České Budějovice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 České Budějovice games / 55 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: České Budějovice 62% | Draw 22% | Teplice 16%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Teplice 6.25. The model has a clear lean to České Budějovice (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is České Budějovice at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: České Budějovice 30% | Teplice 70%.

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