Dukla Praha 0-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dukla Praha at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dukla Praha vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zlin make the trip to Stadion Juliska to face Dukla Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Dukla Praha (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dukla Praha at Stadion Juliska this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Zlin have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Dukla Praha against 0.80 for Zlin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dukla Praha lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Dukla Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Zlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 43% versus Zlin 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dukla Praha 29% | Zlin 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 1.21 xG and Zlin 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.779 / defence 1.175 | Zlin attack 0.763 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.201. Dukla Praha's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 Dukla Praha games / 21 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 39% | Draw 30% | Zlin 32%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Zlin 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dukla Praha are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dukla Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Dukla Praha 50% | Zlin 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 39% | Draw 30% | Zlin 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Dukla Praha 1.21 / Zlin 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.779 / def 1.175 | Zlin attack 0.763 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Dukla Praha (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Zlin xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dukla Praha vs Zlin kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Zlin?
Dukla Praha 0 - 0 Zlin.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Zlin part of?
Dukla Praha vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 39% chance of winning, Zlin a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dukla Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Dukla Praha and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Dukla Praha vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Zlin?
Record (1 meetings): Dukla Praha 0W | Draws 1 | Zlin 0W.
What form are Dukla Praha and Zlin in?
Dukla Praha (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Zlin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dukla Praha's attack rating (0.78) and Zlin's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zlin's attack (0.76x) against Dukla Praha's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 51/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dukla Praha Win
39%
2.60
30%
3.37
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.29
1.08
Zlin xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
9%
10.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.08 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dukla Praha come into this having played 21 games, going 2W 8D 11L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 1.24 PPG from 21 outings (7W 5D 9L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Dukla Praha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Dukla Praha's home form reads 2W 4D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 1.30 points per game from 10 outings (4W 1D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.24 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dukla Praha and Zlin in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 2W 8D 11L in their last 21 games (0.67 PPG), while Zlin have gone 7W 5D 9L in their last 21 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dukla Praha at home or Zlin away?
Zlin's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dukla Praha at home: 1.00 PPG; Zlin away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Dukla Praha
2
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Zlin?
From 3 meetings on record, Dukla Praha have won 0, Zlin have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Zlin 2-1 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Zlin?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dukla Praha 50%, Zlin 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Dukla Praha and 40% for Zlin.
On the defensive side: Dukla Praha have failed to score in 30% of games; Zlin in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dukla Praha play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Dukla Praha's recent matches and 40% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dukla Praha vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Dukla Praha's recent games and 40% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dukla Praha and Zlin tend to score early?
Dukla Praha have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Zlin in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dukla Praha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dukla Praha and Zlin finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.21 xG and Zlin 1.08 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dukla Praha fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Zlin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.78 / defence 1.18 against Zlin attack 0.76 / defence 1.09, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 39% | Draw 30% | Zlin 32%, with Dukla Praha to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 29%, Zlin 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zlin's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Zlin arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.