Bohemians 1905 0-1 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 12 as Bohemians 1905 welcome Plzen to Dolicek. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 October 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 at Dolicek this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Plzen — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Plzen have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bohemians 1905 1.50 PPG, Plzen 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Plzen have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 2 for Bohemians 1905.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Plzen winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Plzen have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Plzen trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 43% versus Plzen 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 46% | Plzen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.15 xG and Plzen 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.930 / defence 1.009 | Plzen attack 1.289 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.235. Plzen have an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — the away xG of 1.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Bohemians 1905 games / 41 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 25% | Draw 29% | Plzen 46%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Plzen 2.17. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 40% | Plzen 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 25% | Draw 29% | Plzen 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.15 / Plzen 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.930 / def 1.009 | Plzen attack 1.289 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Plzen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Plzen xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Dolicek.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Bohemians 1905 0 - 1 Plzen.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 25% chance of winning, Plzen a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen?
Record (8 meetings): Bohemians 1905 2W | Draws 1 | Plzen 5W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Plzen in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Plzen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.93x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
25%
4.00
29%
3.39
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.76
1.60
Plzen xG
4.00
25%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
5%
19.92
14%
6.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.60 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 44 games, going 14W 13D 17L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Plzen sit at 1.91 PPG from 44 outings (25W 9D 10L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 6W 7D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Plzen have taken 1.76 points per game from 21 outings (11W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.98 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Plzen in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 14W 13D 17L in their last 44 games (1.25 PPG), while Plzen have gone 25W 9D 10L in their last 44 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.19 PPG; Plzen away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Plzen in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Plzen won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bohemians 1905
1
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, Plzen have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Plzen 2-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 48%, Plzen 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Bohemians 1905) and 57% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Plzen in 33%; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 52% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 57% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Plzen tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Plzen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Bohemians 1905 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Bohemians 1905 0-1 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.15 xG and Plzen 1.60 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.93 / defence 1.01 against Plzen attack 1.29 / defence 0.96, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 25% | Draw 29% | Plzen 46%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 46%, Plzen 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plzen's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.