Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mlada Boleslav make the trip to Dolicek to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Dolicek, Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dolicek this season.
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Mlada Boleslav have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing away from home: 4W 6D 0L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.60 for Mlada Boleslav. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Bohemians 1905, 3 for Mlada Boleslav and 5 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 42% versus Mlada Boleslav 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 42% | Mlada Boleslav 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.25 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.840 / defence 0.801 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.156 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.401. Data: 34 Bohemians 1905 games / 35 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 35% | Draw 27% | Mlada Boleslav 38%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Mlada Boleslav 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 40% | Mlada Boleslav 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 35% | Draw 27% | Mlada Boleslav 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.25 / Mlada Boleslav 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.840 / def 0.801 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.156 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Mlada Boleslav xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Dolicek.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 35% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (10 meetings): Bohemians 1905 2W | Draws 5 | Mlada Boleslav 3W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.84x the league average against Mlada Boleslav's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (1.16x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
35%
2.83
27%
3.71
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.55
1.30
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
10%
10.35
11%
9.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.2 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.30 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians 1905's recent record stands at 12W 8D 16L from 36 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 11W 14D 11L across 36 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.31 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bohemians 1905 have managed 5W 4D 8L from 17 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 5W 8D 4L across 17 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.39 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 8D 16L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 11W 14D 11L in their last 36 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Mlada Boleslav's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.12 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-0 on 16 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bohemians 1905
5
Draws
3
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, Mlada Boleslav have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 2-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 35%, Mlada Boleslav 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Bohemians 1905) and 53% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Mlada Boleslav in 35%; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 41% of games; Mlada Boleslav in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 53% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 53% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bohemians 1905's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav finished level at 0-0 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.25 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.30 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.84 / defence 0.80 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.16 / defence 1.06, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 35% | Draw 27% | Mlada Boleslav 38%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 42%, Mlada Boleslav 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.22 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.