Bohemians 1905 2-2 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mlada Boleslav make the trip to Stadion Ďolíček to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 October 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Ďolíček, Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.20 for Mlada Boleslav. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Mlada Boleslav in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Bohemians 1905, 3 for Mlada Boleslav and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 56% versus Mlada Boleslav 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 49% | Mlada Boleslav 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.29 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.933 / defence 1.253 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.002 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.241. Data: 40 Bohemians 1905 games / 40 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 30% | Draw 29% | Mlada Boleslav 42%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Mlada Boleslav 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 70% | Mlada Boleslav 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 30% | Draw 29% | Mlada Boleslav 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.29 / Mlada Boleslav 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.933 / def 1.253 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.002 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Mlada Boleslav xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav?
Bohemians 1905 2 - 2 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 30% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (6 meetings): Bohemians 1905 1W | Draws 2 | Mlada Boleslav 3W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.93x the league average against Mlada Boleslav's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (1.00x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
30%
3.37
29%
3.49
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.85
1.56
Mlada Boleslav xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
6%
16.02
11%
8.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.56 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians 1905's recent record stands at 12W 15D 18L from 45 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 18L across 45 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.31 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bohemians 1905 have managed 6W 6D 10L from 22 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 5W 7D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.47 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 15D 18L in their last 45 games (1.13 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 16W 11D 18L in their last 45 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.09 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-0 on 16 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bohemians 1905
5
Draws
3
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, Mlada Boleslav have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 2-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 50%, Mlada Boleslav 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Bohemians 1905) and 50% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 41% of games; Mlada Boleslav in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 54% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 50% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.29 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.56 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.93 / defence 1.25 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.00 / defence 1.05, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 30% | Draw 29% | Mlada Boleslav 42%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 49%, Mlada Boleslav 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.13 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.