Baník Ostrava 1-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 2 as Baník Ostrava welcome Teplice to Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 17 September 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Baník Ostrava are significantly better at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Teplice have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Baník Ostrava at 1.10 PPG versus Teplice's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Baník Ostrava register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Teplice in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Baník Ostrava: 6 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for Teplice, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 2–0 with Baník Ostrava winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Baník Ostrava and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Teplice in-play and half-time data (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 46% versus Teplice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 49% | Teplice 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.77 xG and Teplice 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.914 / defence 1.005 | Teplice attack 0.828 / defence 1.382. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.220. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.382 — this is suppressing Baník Ostrava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Baník Ostrava games / 37 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 55% | Draw 23% | Teplice 22%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Teplice 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Baník Ostrava (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 60% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Sep 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 55% | Draw 23% | Teplice 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.77 / Teplice 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.914 / def 1.005 | Teplice attack 0.828 / def 1.382 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Teplice xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Teplice kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Teplice kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 17 September 2025 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Baník Ostrava 1 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Teplice part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 55% chance of winning, Teplice a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Teplice?
Record (7 meetings): Baník Ostrava 6W | Draws 0 | Teplice 1W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Teplice in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Teplice (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Baník Ostrava's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
55%
1.81
23%
4.29
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.79
1.01
Teplice xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
4%
27.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.01 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Baník Ostrava have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 23W 6D 12L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Teplice's form line: 13W 8D 20L from 41 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Baník Ostrava are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
Venue Form
On home soil, Baník Ostrava have posted 2.00 PPG from 19 outings (12W 2D 5L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 3W 6D 10L from 19 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.20 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
Teplice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Teplice in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 23W 6D 12L in their last 41 games (1.83 PPG), while Teplice have gone 13W 8D 20L in their last 41 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Teplice away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 2.00 PPG; Teplice away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Teplice in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Teplice have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2023, when Baník Ostrava won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Baník Ostrava
1
Draws
3
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 6, Teplice have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Teplice 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Teplice?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 53%, Teplice 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Baník Ostrava) and 47% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Teplice in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Baník Ostrava's games and 58% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 47% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Teplice tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Teplice in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baník Ostrava and Teplice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava and Teplice finished level at 1-1 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.77 xG and Teplice 1.01 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.91 / defence 1.00 against Teplice attack 0.83 / defence 1.38, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 55% | Draw 23% | Teplice 22%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 49%, Teplice 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Teplice's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.