Yunnan Yukun 2-1 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Yunnan Yukun at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns meet at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 August 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Yunnan Yukun's overall Super League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Yunnan Yukun have posted 5W 2D 2L at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium — 1.89 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wuhan Three Towns have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Three Towns away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Yunnan Yukun. A 0.70 PPG lead over Wuhan Three Towns (1.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Wuhan Three Towns in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Yunnan Yukun lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 1–3 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Yunnan Yukun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Wuhan Three Towns goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 70% and Wuhan Three Towns 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 60% | Wuhan Three Towns 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 2.09 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.128 / defence 1.212 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.912 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.796 / away 1.383. Data: 20 Yunnan Yukun games / 50 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 50% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Three Towns 28%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | Wuhan Three Towns 3.57. Yunnan Yukun hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Yunnan Yukun at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Yunnan Yukun if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.61 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Yunnan Yukun 67% | Wuhan Three Towns 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Aug 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 50% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Three Towns 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Yunnan Yukun 2.09 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.128 / def 1.212 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.912 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.796 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Wuhan Three Towns xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 15 August 2025 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Yunnan Yukun 2 - 1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 50% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (1 meetings): Yunnan Yukun 0W | Draws 0 | Wuhan Three Towns 1W.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Yunnan Yukun's attack rating (1.13) and Wuhan Three Towns's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 2.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Wuhan Three Towns's attack (0.91x) against Yunnan Yukun's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 20/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yunnan Yukun Win
50%
2.00
22%
4.45
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
3.61
1.53
Wuhan Three Towns xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
12%
8.05
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
3%
29.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.53 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Yunnan Yukun's recent record stands at 7W 5D 8L from 20 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Yunnan Yukun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Three Towns, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 9L across 20 games — 1.05 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Yunnan Yukun against 1.05 for Wuhan Three Towns. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Yunnan Yukun have managed 5W 2D 2L from 9 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Yunnan Yukun are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record stands at 2W 1D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yunnan Yukun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 1.30 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Wuhan Three Towns in 65%.
Last 20 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Yunnan Yukun have gone 7W 5D 8L in their last 20 games (1.30 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 5W 6D 9L in their last 20 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yunnan Yukun at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Yunnan Yukun's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yunnan Yukun at home: 1.89 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 31 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Yunnan Yukun
1
Draws
1
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 3 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 1, Wuhan Three Towns have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Wuhan Three Towns 1-1 Yunnan Yukun.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Yunnan Yukun, 67% for Wuhan Three Towns — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Yunnan Yukun) and 56% (Wuhan Three Towns). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yunnan Yukun play Wuhan Three Towns?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Yunnan Yukun's games and 67% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Yunnan Yukun's matches and 56% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Yunnan Yukun have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Yunnan Yukun edge out Wuhan Three Towns 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun beat Wuhan Three Towns 2-1 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 2.09 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.53 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 1.13 / defence 1.21 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.91 / defence 1.03, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 50% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Three Towns 28%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yunnan Yukun 60%, Wuhan Three Towns 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yunnan Yukun 1.30 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Yunnan Yukun win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.