Yunnan Yukun 2-0 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Yunnan Yukun and Meizhou Kejia meet at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Friday 16 May 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Meizhou Kejia have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.64 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.863 / defence 1.046 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.943 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.454. Data: 12 Yunnan Yukun games / 42 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 42% | Draw 24% | Meizhou Kejia 33%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Meizhou Kejia 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Yunnan Yukun at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Yunnan Yukun if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 May 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 42% | Draw 24% | Meizhou Kejia 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Yunnan Yukun 1.64 / Meizhou Kejia 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.863 / def 1.046 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.943 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.454 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Meizhou Kejia xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 16 May 2025 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Meizhou Kejia?
Yunnan Yukun 2 - 0 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 42% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Meizhou Kejia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Meizhou Kejia in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Meizhou Kejia away split: 0.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 2.70 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Yunnan Yukun's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Meizhou Kejia's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Meizhou Kejia's attack (0.94x) against Yunnan Yukun's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 12/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yunnan Yukun Win
42%
2.36
24%
4.09
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
3.08
1.43
Meizhou Kejia xG
2.36
42%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
10%
9.92
6%
15.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.43 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Pre-Season
Meizhou Kejia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 24 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Yunnan Yukun
0
Draws
0
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Meizhou Kejia?
From 2 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 2, Meizhou Kejia have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 1-4 Yunnan Yukun.
Who has won more matches between Yunnan Yukun and Meizhou Kejia?
Yunnan Yukun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Yunnan Yukun cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Meizhou Kejia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun beat Meizhou Kejia 2-0 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.64 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.43 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 0.86 / defence 1.05 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.94 / defence 1.11, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 42% | Draw 24% | Meizhou Kejia 33%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.