Wuhan Three Towns 2-5 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Henan Jianye travel to Wuhan Sports Centre to take on Wuhan Three Towns. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 September 2025, 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Wuhan Three Towns — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Three Towns at Wuhan Sports Centre this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Wuhan Three Towns are significantly better at Wuhan Sports Centre than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Henan Jianye have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Henan Jianye — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Wuhan Three Towns register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Henan Jianye in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Wuhan Three Towns have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Henan Jianye have managed just 1 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Wuhan Three Towns and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Wuhan Three Towns in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wuhan Three Towns 57% and Henan Jianye 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 52% | Henan Jianye 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.59 xG and Henan Jianye 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.841 / defence 0.980 | Henan Jianye attack 0.902 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.828 / away 1.285. Data: 54 Wuhan Three Towns games / 54 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 47% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 26%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Henan Jianye 3.85. Wuhan Three Towns hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Wuhan Three Towns dominate the H2H record, yet Henan Jianye are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Henan Jianye (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wuhan Three Towns 60% | Henan Jianye 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 19 Sep 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 47% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.59 / Henan Jianye 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.841 / def 0.980 | Henan Jianye attack 0.902 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.828 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Henan Jianye xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 19 September 2025 at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye?
Wuhan Three Towns 2 - 5 Henan Jianye.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 47% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye?
Record (7 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 5W | Draws 1 | Henan Jianye 1W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Wuhan Three Towns's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Wuhan Three Towns's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
47%
2.14
28%
3.62
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.73
1.14
Henan Jianye xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
5%
19.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.14 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wuhan Three Towns come into this having played 54 games, going 14W 13D 27L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.15 PPG from 54 outings (16W 14D 24L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wuhan Three Towns on 1.02 PPG, Henan Jianye on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Wuhan Three Towns's home form reads 8W 7D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 0.89 points per game from 27 outings (5W 9D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.37 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye in 63%.
Last 54 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 14W 13D 27L in their last 54 games (1.02 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 16W 14D 24L in their last 54 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Henan Jianye away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.15 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2022, when Wuhan Three Towns won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wuhan Three Towns's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Wuhan Three Towns
2
Draws
2
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye?
From 9 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 5, Henan Jianye have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Henan Jianye 1-1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 52%, Henan Jianye 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Wuhan Three Towns) and 52% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns have failed to score in 33% of games; Henan Jianye in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Henan Jianye?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Wuhan Three Towns's games and 63% of Henan Jianye's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent games and 52% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Henan Jianye run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Wuhan Three Towns.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Wuhan Three Towns 2-5 at Wuhan Sports Centre, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.59 xG and Henan Jianye 1.14 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Henan Jianye outscored their 1.14 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.84 / defence 0.98 against Henan Jianye attack 0.90 / defence 1.04, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 47% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 26%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Henan Jianye win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 52%, Henan Jianye 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Three Towns 1.02 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.