Tianjin Teda 3-2 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda and Yunnan Yukun meet at TEDA Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 August 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tianjin Teda have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at TEDA Football Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at TEDA Football Stadium this season.
Yunnan Yukun's overall Super League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Yunnan Yukun have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Tianjin Teda, 1.50 for Yunnan Yukun — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Tianjin Teda register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Yunnan Yukun in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Tianjin Teda 1W, Yunnan Yukun 2W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2026, ended 3–0 with Tianjin Teda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Tianjin Teda — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Yunnan Yukun — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tianjin Teda 53% and Yunnan Yukun 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 51% | Yunnan Yukun 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.80 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.890 / defence 0.963 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.205 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.729 / away 1.362. Yunnan Yukun have an above-average attack strength of 1.205 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Tianjin Teda games / 50 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 43% | Draw 23% | Yunnan Yukun 34%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Yunnan Yukun 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 70% | Yunnan Yukun 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 43% | Draw 23% | Yunnan Yukun 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.80 / Yunnan Yukun 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.890 / def 0.963 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.205 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.729 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Yunnan Yukun xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 1 August 2026 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun?
Tianjin Teda 3 - 2 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 43% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Yunnan Yukun will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Yunnan Yukun?
Record (3 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 0 | Yunnan Yukun 2W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Yunnan Yukun in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Tianjin Teda's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Yunnan Yukun's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — Yunnan Yukun's attack (1.21x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
43%
2.33
23%
4.35
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
3.38
1.58
Yunnan Yukun xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
9%
11.33
6%
17.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.58 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Tianjin Teda have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 18W 14D 17L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Yunnan Yukun's form line: 19W 13D 17L from 49 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W. The sample for Yunnan Yukun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Tianjin Teda against 1.43 for Yunnan Yukun. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Tianjin Teda have posted 1.54 PPG from 24 outings (10W 7D 7L).
On the road, Yunnan Yukun have gone 5W 7D 12L from 24 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yunnan Yukun's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Yunnan Yukun are on 1.78 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yunnan Yukun in 78%.
Last 49 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Yunnan Yukun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Yunnan Yukun in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 18W 14D 17L in their last 49 games (1.39 PPG), while Yunnan Yukun have gone 19W 13D 17L in their last 49 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Yunnan Yukun away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.54 PPG; Yunnan Yukun away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Tianjin Teda have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 0-3 on 17 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Yunnan Yukun — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Tianjin Teda
0
Draws
2
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Yunnan Yukun?
From 4 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 2, Yunnan Yukun have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Tianjin Teda 3-2 Yunnan Yukun.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Tianjin Teda, 83% for Yunnan Yukun — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Tianjin Teda and 67% for Yunnan Yukun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Yunnan Yukun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Tianjin Teda's games and 83% of Yunnan Yukun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 67% of Yunnan Yukun's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Yunnan Yukun tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Yunnan Yukun in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Yunnan Yukun 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Yunnan Yukun 3-2 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.80 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.58 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Tianjin Teda beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.89 / defence 0.96 against Yunnan Yukun attack 1.21 / defence 1.17, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 43% | Draw 23% | Yunnan Yukun 34%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 51%, Yunnan Yukun 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.39 PPG, Yunnan Yukun 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.