Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host Shenyang Urban at TEDA Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 September 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at TEDA Football Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at TEDA Football Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shenyang Urban stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Shenyang Urban, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenyang Urban's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Tianjin Teda carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Tianjin Teda, 1 for Shenyang Urban and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 0–3 with Shenyang Urban winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Shenyang Urban in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 58% versus Shenyang Urban 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 50% | Shenyang Urban 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.63 xG and Shenyang Urban 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.960 / defence 1.122 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.795 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.404. Data: 54 Tianjin Teda games / 24 Shenyang Urban games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 46% | Draw 25% | Shenyang Urban 29%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Shenyang Urban 3.45. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 80% | Shenyang Urban 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 46% | Draw 25% | Shenyang Urban 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.63 / Shenyang Urban 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.960 / def 1.122 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.795 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Shenyang Urban xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 12 September 2026 at TEDA Football Stadium.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 46% chance of winning, Shenyang Urban a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Shenyang Urban will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shenyang Urban?
Record (1 meetings): Tianjin Teda 0W | Draws 0 | Shenyang Urban 1W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shenyang Urban in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Shenyang Urban (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 0.96x the league average against Shenyang Urban's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shenyang Urban's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
46%
2.19
25%
3.99
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.88
1.25
Shenyang Urban xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
6%
17.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Shenyang Urban expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.25 for Shenyang Urban, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 7W 8D 9L from 24 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shenyang Urban, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 13L across 24 games — 1.04 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Shenyang Urban is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tianjin Teda on 1.21 PPG, Shenyang Urban on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 3W 3D 5L from 11 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shenyang Urban's away record stands at 1W 3D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shenyang Urban's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Shenyang Urban are on 1.42 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Shenyang Urban
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shenyang Urban in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 7W 8D 9L in their last 24 games (1.21 PPG), while Shenyang Urban have gone 7W 4D 13L in their last 24 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Shenyang Urban away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.09 PPG; Shenyang Urban away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Tianjin Teda
0
Draws
1
Shenyang Urban
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shenyang Urban?
From 1 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 0, Shenyang Urban have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Shenyang Urban last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Shenyang Urban 3-0 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Shenyang Urban?
Shenyang Urban have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Shenyang Urban are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 82%, Shenyang Urban 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Tianjin Teda and 54% for Shenyang Urban. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shenyang Urban in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Shenyang Urban away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Shenyang Urban?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Tianjin Teda's games and 46% of Shenyang Urban's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 54% of Shenyang Urban's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Shenyang Urban tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Shenyang Urban in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.