Tianjin Teda 1-1 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Shandong Luneng travel to TEDA Football Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 21 May 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 3W 7D 0L at TEDA Football Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shandong Luneng — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shandong Luneng's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Tianjin Teda) versus 2.30 (Shandong Luneng). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Tianjin Teda register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Shandong Luneng in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Shandong Luneng, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Tianjin Teda.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Shandong Luneng winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shandong Luneng have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Tianjin Teda trading profile (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Shandong Luneng trading profile (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 54% versus Shandong Luneng 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 43% | Shandong Luneng 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 0.85 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.725 / defence 0.788 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.948 / defence 0.766. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.528. Tianjin Teda's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shandong Luneng's defence strength of 0.766 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Tianjin Teda's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Tianjin Teda games / 42 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 26% | Draw 33% | Shandong Luneng 41%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 3.85 | Draw 3.03 | Shandong Luneng 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. This conflicts with form data: Tianjin Teda 70% | Shandong Luneng 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 May 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 26% | Draw 33% | Shandong Luneng 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Tianjin Teda 0.85 / Shandong Luneng 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.725 / def 0.788 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.948 / def 0.766 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.528 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Shandong Luneng xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 13:00 on Tuesday 21 May 2024 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 1 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 26% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng?
Record (4 meetings): Tianjin Teda 0W | Draws 1 | Shandong Luneng 3W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 0.72x the league average against Shandong Luneng's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
26%
3.82
33%
3.05
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
1.99
1.14
Shandong Luneng xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
8%
11.96
17%
5.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 15.5 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.14 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tianjin Teda come into this having played 63 games, going 25W 22D 16L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Shandong Luneng sit at 2.11 PPG from 63 outings (40W 13D 10L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Tianjin Teda's home form reads 12W 14D 6L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Shandong Luneng have taken 1.62 points per game from 32 outings (14W 10D 8L). That's a step down from their 2.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.30 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 25W 22D 16L in their last 63 games (1.54 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 40W 13D 10L in their last 63 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.56 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Shandong Luneng have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2022, when Shandong Luneng won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Tianjin Teda
2
Draws
7
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 1, Shandong Luneng have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Shandong Luneng 2-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 56%, Shandong Luneng 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Tianjin Teda) and 53% (Shandong Luneng).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Shandong Luneng in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Shandong Luneng?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Tianjin Teda's games and 59% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 53% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng finished level at 1-1 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 0.85 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.14 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.72 / defence 0.79 against Shandong Luneng attack 0.95 / defence 0.77, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 26% | Draw 33% | Shandong Luneng 41%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 43%, Shandong Luneng 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.54. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.