Qingdao Jonoon 3-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda encounter.

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Analysis

Tianjin Teda make the trip to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to face Qingdao Jonoon in Super League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 May 2024 at 12:00 UTC.

Form

Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Qingdao Jonoon at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Tianjin Teda's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Tianjin Teda arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Qingdao Jonoon lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 1–4 with Tianjin Teda winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Qingdao Jonoon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 43% of games.

Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 43% versus Tianjin Teda 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 47% | Tianjin Teda 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.22 xG and Tianjin Teda 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.810 / defence 1.079 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.297 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.471. Tianjin Teda have an above-average attack strength of 1.297 — the away xG of 2.06 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Qingdao Jonoon games / 43 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 21% | Draw 23% | Tianjin Teda 56%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | Tianjin Teda 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Tianjin Teda (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.22 / 2.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 50% | Tianjin Teda 60% BTTS from recent games.

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