Tianjin Teda 2-0 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 45%, yet in-form Tianjin Teda provide a compelling counter-argument — this Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Hangzhou Greentown travel to Olympic Sports Center Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 April 2025, 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hangzhou Greentown stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Tianjin Teda have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Tianjin Teda have won 2, Hangzhou Greentown 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 3–2 with Tianjin Teda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tianjin Teda 62% and Hangzhou Greentown 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 50% | Hangzhou Greentown 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.37 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.869 / defence 1.107 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.092 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.751 / away 1.458. Data: 37 Tianjin Teda games / 37 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 28% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 45%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.22. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Tianjin Teda (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 50% | Hangzhou Greentown 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Apr 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 28% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.37 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.869 / def 1.107 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.092 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.751 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Hangzhou Greentown xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 20 April 2025 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Tianjin Teda 2 - 0 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 28% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (5 meetings): Tianjin Teda 2W | Draws 0 | Hangzhou Greentown 3W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.87) and Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
28%
3.58
27%
3.68
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
3.13
1.76
Hangzhou Greentown xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
17%
5.82
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
5%
20.85
11%
8.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.76 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Tianjin Teda have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 23W 21D 16L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Hangzhou Greentown's form line: 27W 12D 21L from 60 games, 1.55 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tianjin Teda on 1.50 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Tianjin Teda have posted 1.70 PPG from 30 outings (12W 15D 3L).
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 10W 7D 13L from 30 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.87 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Hangzhou Greentown in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 23W 21D 16L in their last 60 games (1.50 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 27W 12D 21L in their last 60 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.70 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Tianjin Teda
1
Draws
4
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 9 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 4, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Tianjin Teda 2-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 57%, Hangzhou Greentown 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 43% for Tianjin Teda and 77% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Tianjin Teda's games and 67% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 77% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hangzhou Greentown.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Hangzhou Greentown 2-0 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.37 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.76 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.87 / defence 1.11 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.09 / defence 0.90, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 28% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 45%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Tianjin Teda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 50%, Hangzhou Greentown 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.50 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.