Tianjin Teda 2-0 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dalian Zhixing make the trip to Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Tianjin Teda in Super League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 August 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tianjin Teda have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda at Olympic Sports Center Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
Dalian Zhixing (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Zhixing away from home this season: 1W 4D 4L from 9 away games — 0.78 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.78 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Tianjin Teda, 1.60 for Dalian Zhixing — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Tianjin Teda 0W, Dalian Zhixing 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Dalian Zhixing half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 60% versus Dalian Zhixing 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 60% | Dalian Zhixing 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.43 xG and Dalian Zhixing 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.776 / defence 0.777 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.792 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.376. Tianjin Teda's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Tianjin Teda's defence rating of 0.777 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Tianjin Teda games / 20 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 50% | Draw 29% | Dalian Zhixing 21%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Dalian Zhixing 4.76. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 40% | Dalian Zhixing 56%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 50% | Draw 29% | Dalian Zhixing 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.43 / Dalian Zhixing 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.776 / def 0.777 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.792 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Dalian Zhixing xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing?
Tianjin Teda 2 - 0 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 50% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Dalian Zhixing will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Dalian Zhixing?
Record (1 meetings): Tianjin Teda 0W | Draws 1 | Dalian Zhixing 0W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Dalian Zhixing in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 0.78x the league average against Dalian Zhixing's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dalian Zhixing's attack (0.79x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 50/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
50%
2.02
29%
3.43
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.27
0.85
Dalian Zhixing xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
5%
19.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.4 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 0.85 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 8W 6D 6L from 20 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dalian Zhixing, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 7L across 20 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Dalian Zhixing is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Tianjin Teda against 1.45 for Dalian Zhixing. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 4W 3D 2L from 9 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dalian Zhixing's away record stands at 1W 4D 4L across 9 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dalian Zhixing's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Dalian Zhixing are on 1.05 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Dalian Zhixing in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Dalian Zhixing
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Dalian Zhixing in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 8W 6D 6L in their last 20 games (1.50 PPG), while Dalian Zhixing have gone 8W 5D 7L in their last 20 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Dalian Zhixing away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.67 PPG; Dalian Zhixing away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Dalian Zhixing been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Dalian Zhixing in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 31 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Tianjin Teda have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dalian Zhixing — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Tianjin Teda
1
Draws
0
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Dalian Zhixing?
From 3 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 2, Dalian Zhixing have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Tianjin Teda 1-0 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Dalian Zhixing?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 44%, Dalian Zhixing 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Tianjin Teda) and 33% (Dalian Zhixing).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Dalian Zhixing in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Dalian Zhixing?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 56% of Dalian Zhixing's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 33% of Dalian Zhixing's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Dalian Zhixing tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dalian Zhixing in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dalian Zhixing.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Dalian Zhixing 2-0 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.43 xG and Dalian Zhixing 0.85 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dalian Zhixing landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.78 / defence 0.78 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.79 / defence 1.02, drawn from 50/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 50% | Draw 29% | Dalian Zhixing 21%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 60%, Dalian Zhixing 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.50 PPG, Dalian Zhixing 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.