Sichuan Jiuniu 3-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Sichuan Jiuniu welcome Shanghai Shenhua to Shenzhen Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 June 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sichuan Jiuniu stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Sichuan Jiuniu's home record at Shenzhen Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sichuan Jiuniu are significantly better at Shenzhen Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Shanghai Shenhua have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shanghai Shenhua are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sichuan Jiuniu, 1 for Shanghai Shenhua and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sichuan Jiuniu in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Shanghai Shenhua in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 53% versus Shanghai Shenhua 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 57% | Shanghai Shenhua 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.06 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.981 / defence 1.134 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.153 / defence 0.663. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.390. Shanghai Shenhua's defence strength of 0.663 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 43 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 21% | Draw 25% | Shanghai Shenhua 54%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 4.76 | Draw 4.00 | Shanghai Shenhua 1.85. Shanghai Shenhua hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sichuan Jiuniu 50% | Shanghai Shenhua 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Shenzhen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jun 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 21% | Draw 25% | Shanghai Shenhua 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.06 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.981 / def 1.134 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.153 / def 0.663 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Shanghai Shenhua xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 14 June 2025 at Shenzhen Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Sichuan Jiuniu 3 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 21% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 54% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (2 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 0W | Draws 1 | Shanghai Shenhua 1W.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sichuan Jiuniu's attack rating (0.98) and Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating (0.66), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Sichuan Jiuniu's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
21%
4.80
25%
3.94
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
2.88
1.82
Shanghai Shenhua xG
4.80
21%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
16%
6.15
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
3%
29.48
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.82 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Sichuan Jiuniu have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 7W 8D 15L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Shanghai Shenhua's form line: 24W 5D 1L from 30 games, 2.57 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Shanghai Shenhua are the form team by 1.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sichuan Jiuniu.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 1.07 PPG from 15 outings (4W 4D 7L).
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 12W 2D 1L from 15 away games — 2.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 2.43 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 7W 8D 15L in their last 30 games (0.97 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 24W 5D 1L in their last 30 (2.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 1.07 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 2.53 PPG.
Have Sichuan Jiuniu or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sichuan Jiuniu have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sichuan Jiuniu's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
1
Draws
2
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 5 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 2, Shanghai Shenhua have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 1-2 Sichuan Jiuniu.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sichuan Jiuniu 53%, Shanghai Shenhua 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Sichuan Jiuniu) and 47% (Shanghai Shenhua). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua in 60%; Sichuan Jiuniu have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sichuan Jiuniu play Shanghai Shenhua?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Sichuan Jiuniu's recent matches and 40% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sichuan Jiuniu's matches and 47% of Shanghai Shenhua's.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Sichuan Jiuniu have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sichuan Jiuniu cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Shanghai Shenhua.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu beat Shanghai Shenhua 3-1 at Shenzhen Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.06 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.82 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sichuan Jiuniu beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shanghai Shenhua landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.98 / defence 1.13 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.15 / defence 0.66, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 21% | Draw 25% | Shanghai Shenhua 54%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Sichuan Jiuniu win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 57%, Shanghai Shenhua 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.57 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Sichuan Jiuniu winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.