Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-0 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 28 as Shijiazhuang Y. J. welcome Nantong Zhiyun to Cangzhou Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 October 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 3W 2D 5L at Cangzhou Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nantong Zhiyun stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nantong Zhiyun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantong Zhiyun's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 3.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Shijiazhuang Y. J., 0 for Nantong Zhiyun and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Nantong Zhiyun in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60% and Nantong Zhiyun 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 53% | Nantong Zhiyun 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.17 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.832 / defence 1.177 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.072 / defence 1.355. League average goals — home 1.924 / away 1.332. Nantong Zhiyun bring a strong defensive rating of 1.355 — this is suppressing Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 57 Nantong Zhiyun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 49% | Draw 21% | Nantong Zhiyun 30%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.04 | Draw 4.76 | Nantong Zhiyun 3.33. Shijiazhuang Y. J. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.85 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 70% | Nantong Zhiyun 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 49% | Draw 21% | Nantong Zhiyun 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 72% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.17 / Nantong Zhiyun 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.832 / def 1.177 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.072 / def 1.355 | league avg home 1.924 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Nantong Zhiyun xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0 - 0 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 49% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 30% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Nantong Zhiyun will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Nantong Zhiyun?
Record (3 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W | Draws 2 | Nantong Zhiyun 0W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Nantong Zhiyun in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack at 0.83x the league average against Nantong Zhiyun's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nantong Zhiyun's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
49%
2.03
21%
4.86
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
3.85
1.68
Nantong Zhiyun xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.58
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
11%
8.76
Win to Nil
9%
10.89
3%
29.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.68 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent record stands at 15W 14D 28L from 57 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nantong Zhiyun, meanwhile, have gone 9W 16D 32L across 57 games — 0.75 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Nantong Zhiyun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shijiazhuang Y. J. on 1.04 PPG, Nantong Zhiyun on 0.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed 10W 6D 12L from 28 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nantong Zhiyun's away record stands at 4W 9D 15L across 28 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shijiazhuang Y. J. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Nantong Zhiyun are on 0.98 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nantong Zhiyun in 61%.
Last 57 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Nantong Zhiyun in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 15W 14D 28L in their last 57 games (1.04 PPG), while Nantong Zhiyun have gone 9W 16D 32L in their last 57 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Nantong Zhiyun away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.29 PPG; Nantong Zhiyun away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Nantong Zhiyun runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Nantong Zhiyun specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
3
Draws
0
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Nantong Zhiyun?
From 4 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-0 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Nantong Zhiyun?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 57%, Nantong Zhiyun at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 50% (Nantong Zhiyun).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Nantong Zhiyun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s games and 75% of Nantong Zhiyun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 50% of Nantong Zhiyun's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Nantong Zhiyun tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Nantong Zhiyun in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Nantong Zhiyun drew 0-0 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.17 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.68 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Nantong Zhiyun landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.83 / defence 1.18 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.07 / defence 1.35, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 49% | Draw 21% | Nantong Zhiyun 30%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 53%, Nantong Zhiyun 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.04 PPG, Nantong Zhiyun 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Nantong Zhiyun (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.