Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Chengdu Better City travel to Cangzhou Stadium to take on Shijiazhuang Y. J.. The game is scheduled for Monday 17 July 2023, 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 3W 3D 4L at Cangzhou Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Chengdu Better City — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chengdu Better City have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Chengdu Better City are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 0, Chengdu Better City 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Chengdu Better City winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Chengdu Better City in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 58% versus Chengdu Better City 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46% | Chengdu Better City 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.07 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.849 / defence 1.017 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.133 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.216. Data: 50 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 50 Chengdu Better City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 26% | Draw 31% | Chengdu Better City 42%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Chengdu Better City 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60% | Chengdu Better City 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 17 Jul 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 26% | Draw 31% | Chengdu Better City 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.07 / Chengdu Better City 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.849 / def 1.017 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.133 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Chengdu Better City xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 12:35 on Monday 17 July 2023 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2 - 1 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 26% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City?
Record (3 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W | Draws 2 | Chengdu Better City 1W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack at 0.85x the league average against Chengdu Better City's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chengdu Better City's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
26%
3.79
31%
3.19
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.47
1.40
Chengdu Better City xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
6%
15.39
15%
6.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.40 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent record stands at 15W 17D 18L from 50 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chengdu Better City, meanwhile, have gone 26W 17D 7L across 50 games — 1.90 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chengdu Better City by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shijiazhuang Y. J. heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed 5W 9D 10L from 24 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chengdu Better City's away record stands at 12W 7D 5L across 24 trips, a 1.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.48 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Chengdu Better City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 15W 17D 18L in their last 50 games (1.24 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 26W 17D 7L in their last 50 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Chengdu Better City's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.00 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 June 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jun 2024, when Chengdu Better City won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Chengdu Better City specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
2
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City?
From 6 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, Chengdu Better City have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 30 June 2024, when Chengdu Better City 4-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%, Chengdu Better City 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 33% for Chengdu Better City.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City in 50%; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Chengdu Better City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 38% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 33% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shijiazhuang Y. J. defy the odds to beat Chengdu Better City 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Chengdu Better City 2-1 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.07 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.40 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.85 / defence 1.02 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.13 / defence 0.85, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 26% | Draw 31% | Chengdu Better City 42%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Shijiazhuang Y. J. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46%, Chengdu Better City 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.