Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Shenzhen Ruby FC welcome Henan Jianye to Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre in Super League (matchday 4). Kick-off is Sunday 30 April 2023 at 11:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 1W 0D 9L — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Henan Jianye — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Henan Jianye's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Henan Jianye are 1.30 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Henan Jianye 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2022, ended Shenzhen Ruby FC 0–2 Henan Jianye — a Henan Jianye win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 49% versus Henan Jianye 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% | Henan Jianye 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.00 xG and Henan Jianye 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.840 / defence 1.234 | Henan Jianye attack 0.945 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.228. Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating of 1.234 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Henan Jianye's projected output up. Data: built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 36 games and Henan Jianye's last 36.
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 23% | Draw 32% | Henan Jianye 44%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 4.26 | Draw 3.09 | Henan Jianye 2.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Henan Jianye 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, matchday 4 | Venue: Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 30 April 2023 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 23% | Draw 32% | Henan Jianye 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.00 / Henan Jianye 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.840 / def 1.234 | Henan Jianye attack 0.945 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Henan Jianye xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye FAQs
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye is a Super League fixture (matchday 4) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 23% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 44% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating (0.84) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 36 games and Henan Jianye's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
23%
4.26
32%
3.09
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.43
1.43
Henan Jianye xG
4.26
23%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
6%
17.86
16%
6.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.43 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shenzhen Ruby FC come into this having played 55 games, going 18W 8D 29L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.56 PPG from 55 outings (23W 17D 15L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five.
Henan Jianye carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Shenzhen Ruby FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home form reads 9W 4D 15L across their last 28 home games, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 1.25 points per game from their last 28 away games (8W 11D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.38 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Henan Jianye in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Shenzhen Ruby FC (Home) vs Henan Jianye (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye Form FAQs
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 18W 8D 29L in their last 55 games (1.13 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 23W 17D 15L in their last 55 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Henan Jianye away?
Henan Jianye's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.11 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from April 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 28 July 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
2
Draws
2
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Henan Jianye have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 July 2023: Henan Jianye 3-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 39%, Henan Jianye 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 32% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 39%; Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 50% of games; Henan Jianye in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 39% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent games and 32% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 46% of Henan Jianye's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye finished level at 1-1 at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.00 xG and Henan Jianye 1.43 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.23 against Henan Jianye attack 0.94 / defence 0.94, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 23% | Draw 32% | Henan Jianye 44%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 60%, Henan Jianye 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Henan Jianye arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.