Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-5 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Hangzhou Greentown travel to Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium to take on Shenzhen Ruby FC in Super League (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 September 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 0W 1D 9L — a 0.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Shenzhen Ruby FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Hangzhou Greentown — last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Hangzhou Greentown's 2.40 PPG return is 2.30 points per game ahead of Shenzhen Ruby FC's 0.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 10 home games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Hangzhou Greentown 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Jun 2023, ended Shenzhen Ruby FC 0–3 Hangzhou Greentown — a Hangzhou Greentown win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 50% versus Hangzhou Greentown 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 66% | Hangzhou Greentown 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Shenzhen Ruby FC surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Hangzhou Greentown have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.09 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 2.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.771 / defence 1.427 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.324 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.160. Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating of 0.771 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. Hangzhou Greentown have an above-average attack rating of 1.324, which lifts their away xG to 2.19. Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating of 1.427 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hangzhou Greentown's projected output up. Data: built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 58 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 58.
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 17% | Draw 21% | Hangzhou Greentown 62%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 5.74 | Draw 4.82 | Hangzhou Greentown 1.62. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (62%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.09 / 2.19) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 10 home games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shenzhen Ruby FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Hangzhou Greentown 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, matchday 26 | Venue: Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 September 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 17% | Draw 21% | Hangzhou Greentown 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.09 / Hangzhou Greentown 2.19 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.771 / def 1.427 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.324 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
2.19
Hangzhou Greentown xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown FAQs
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 0 - 5 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Super League fixture (matchday 26) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 17% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 62% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hangzhou Greentown will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating (0.77) and Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 2.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 58 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
17%
5.74
21%
4.82
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.0%
Away win
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
3.28
2.19
Hangzhou Greentown xG
5.74
17%
Home win
4.82
21%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
11%
8.94
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
2%
51.34
21%
4.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 2.19 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Shenzhen Ruby FC have picked up 0.72 PPG on a 12W 6D 40L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Hangzhou Greentown's form line: 29W 17D 12L from 58 games, 1.79 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Hangzhou Greentown are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 0.90 PPG from their last 29 home games (8W 2D 19L).
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 12W 11D 6L from their last 29 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 2.34 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.74 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC (Home) vs Hangzhou Greentown (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown Form FAQs
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 12W 6D 40L in their last 58 games (0.72 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 29W 17D 12L in their last 58 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Hangzhou Greentown's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 0.90 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 24 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Hangzhou Greentown have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Sep 2023, when Hangzhou Greentown won Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-5 Hangzhou Greentown.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0
Draws
3
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hangzhou Greentown?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 September 2023: Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-5 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 48%, Hangzhou Greentown 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 59% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hangzhou Greentown Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hangzhou Greentown matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's games and 72% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hangzhou Greentown matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's matches and 59% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hangzhou Greentown matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 76% of Hangzhou Greentown's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hangzhou Greentown run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-5 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.09 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 2.19 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Hangzhou Greentown outscored their 2.19 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.43 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.32 / defence 0.93, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 17% | Draw 21% | Hangzhou Greentown 62%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 66%, Hangzhou Greentown 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.72. That form edge translated into the three points. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.