Beijing Guoan 0-1 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Beijing Guoan face Hangzhou Greentown.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Workers' Stadium plays host to Beijing Guoan versus Hangzhou Greentown in Super League (matchday 25). Kick-off: Friday 15 September 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Beijing Guoan have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hangzhou Greentown's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Beijing Guoan's games and 90% of Hangzhou Greentown's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Hangzhou Greentown edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 May 2023, ended Beijing Guoan 2–3 Hangzhou Greentown — a Hangzhou Greentown win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Hangzhou Greentown half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 60% versus Hangzhou Greentown 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 61% | Hangzhou Greentown 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.15 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.308 / defence 0.907 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.329 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.231. Beijing Guoan carry an above-average attack rating of 1.308 — their 2.15 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Hangzhou Greentown have an above-average attack rating of 1.329, which lifts their away xG to 1.49. Data: built from Beijing Guoan's last 58 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 57.
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 52% | Draw 22% | Hangzhou Greentown 26%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.87. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.15 / 1.49) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.63 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beijing Guoan 70% (last 10 home games) | Hangzhou Greentown 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, matchday 25 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 September 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 52% | Draw 22% | Hangzhou Greentown 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Beijing Guoan 2.15 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.308 / def 0.907 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.329 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Hangzhou Greentown xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown FAQs
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Friday 15 September 2023 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Beijing Guoan 0 - 1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Super League fixture (matchday 25) (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 52% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (1.33x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from Beijing Guoan's last 58 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
52%
1.92
22%
4.55
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.63
1.49
Hangzhou Greentown xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
12%
8.57
Win to Nil
12%
8.46
3%
33.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.49 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 28W 15D 14L from 57 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Hangzhou Greentown, meanwhile, have gone 28W 17D 12L across 57 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.74 PPG for Beijing Guoan against 1.77 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Beijing Guoan have managed 15W 8D 5L from their last 28 home games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record stands at 11W 11D 6L across their last 28 away games, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.75 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Beijing Guoan (Home) vs Hangzhou Greentown (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown Form FAQs
What form are Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 28W 15D 14L in their last 57 games (1.74 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 28W 17D 12L in their last 57 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.89 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
3
Draws
3
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Beijing Guoan 2-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 57% for Beijing Guoan, 75% for Hangzhou Greentown — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Beijing Guoan) and 61% (Hangzhou Greentown). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Beijing Guoan's games and 75% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 61% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 79% of Hangzhou Greentown's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hangzhou Greentown defy the odds to beat Beijing Guoan 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Beijing Guoan 0-1 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.15 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.49 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Beijing Guoan fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.31 / defence 0.91 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.33 / defence 1.06, drawn from 58/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 52% | Draw 22% | Hangzhou Greentown 26%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual Hangzhou Greentown win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 61%, Hangzhou Greentown 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.74 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.