Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-3 Guangzhou R&F – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guangzhou R&F at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shenzhen Ruby FC face Guangzhou R&F.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shenzhen Ruby FC host Guangzhou R&F at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium in Super League (matchday 33). Kick-off is Tuesday 27 December 2022 at 07:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 2W 0D 8L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Guangzhou R&F stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Guangzhou R&F have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shenzhen Ruby FC at 0.60 PPG versus Guangzhou R&F's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Shenzhen Ruby FC's 30% BTTS rate and Guangzhou R&F's 30% (from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 10 home games and Guangzhou R&F's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Shenzhen Ruby FC, 1 for Guangzhou R&F and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2022, ended Shenzhen Ruby FC 1–1 Guangzhou R&F — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Guangzhou R&F in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 51% versus Guangzhou R&F 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% | Guangzhou R&F 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.91 xG and Guangzhou R&F 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.598 / defence 1.348 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.645 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.360. Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating of 0.598 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Guangzhou R&F's attack rating of 0.645 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.18. Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating of 1.348 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Guangzhou R&F's projected output up. Data: built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 45 games and Guangzhou R&F's last 46.
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 27% | Draw 32% | Guangzhou R&F 41%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 3.70 | Draw 3.16 | Guangzhou R&F 2.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guangzhou R&F are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guangzhou R&F offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Guangzhou R&F 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F | Competition: Super League, matchday 33 | Venue: Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 December 2022 at 07:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 27% | Draw 32% | Guangzhou R&F 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.91 / Guangzhou R&F 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.598 / def 1.348 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.645 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou R&F (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Guangzhou R&F xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F FAQs
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F kicked off at 07:00 UK time on Tuesday 27 December 2022 at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 0 - 3 Guangzhou R&F.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F being played?
The match is being played at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F is a Super League fixture (matchday 33) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 27% chance of winning, Guangzhou R&F a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou R&F the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou R&F will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack at 0.60x the league average against Guangzhou R&F's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Guangzhou R&F's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 45 games and Guangzhou R&F's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou R&F Win
27%
3.70
32%
3.16
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.09
1.18
Guangzhou R&F xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
8%
12.05
17%
5.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 14.7 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou R&F expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.18 for Guangzhou R&F, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shenzhen Ruby FC come into this having played 53 games, going 18W 8D 27L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Guangzhou R&F sit at 0.85 PPG from 53 outings (11W 12D 30L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shenzhen Ruby FC on 1.17 PPG, Guangzhou R&F on 0.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home form reads 9W 3D 14L across their last 26 home games, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Guangzhou R&F have taken 0.73 points per game from their last 26 away games (4W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shenzhen Ruby FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou R&F are on 1.04 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
Guangzhou R&F
Current Season
Shenzhen Ruby FC (Home) vs Guangzhou R&F (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
Guangzhou R&F
Current Season
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F Form FAQs
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou R&F in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 18W 8D 27L in their last 53 games (1.17 PPG), while Guangzhou R&F have gone 11W 12D 30L in their last 53 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Guangzhou R&F away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.15 PPG; Guangzhou R&F away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 27 December 2022, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Dec 2022, when Guangzhou R&F won Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-3 Guangzhou R&F.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting Guangzhou R&F specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1
Draws
2
Guangzhou R&F
Recent Meetings
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou R&F?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Guangzhou R&F have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou R&F last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 December 2022: Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-3 Guangzhou R&F.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou R&F?
Guangzhou R&F have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Guangzhou R&F are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 42%, Guangzhou R&F 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 35% (Guangzhou R&F).
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 46% of games; Guangzhou R&F in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Guangzhou R&F away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou R&F matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 38% of Guangzhou R&F's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou R&F matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent games and 35% of Guangzhou R&F's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou R&F matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 65% of Guangzhou R&F's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Guangzhou R&F run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guangzhou R&F beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-3 at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.91 xG and Guangzhou R&F 1.18 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Guangzhou R&F outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.60 / defence 1.35 against Guangzhou R&F attack 0.65 / defence 1.05, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 27% | Draw 32% | Guangzhou R&F 41%, with Guangzhou R&F to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 60%, Guangzhou R&F 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.17 PPG, Guangzhou R&F 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guangzhou R&F win broke the near-deadlock. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guangzhou R&F (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.