Beijing Guoan 0-3 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium plays host to Beijing Guoan versus SHANGHAI SIPG in Super League, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Tuesday 27 December 2022 at 07:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beijing Guoan have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium, Beijing Guoan have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SHANGHAI SIPG's overall Super League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
SHANGHAI SIPG away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for Beijing Guoan, 1.90 for SHANGHAI SIPG — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Beijing Guoan 1W, SHANGHAI SIPG 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Beijing Guoan winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Beijing Guoan — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
SHANGHAI SIPG — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 59% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 59% | SHANGHAI SIPG 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.26 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.196 / defence 1.011 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.990 / defence 0.734. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.360. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence strength of 0.734 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Beijing Guoan games / 46 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 34% | Draw 28% | SHANGHAI SIPG 38%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 70% | SHANGHAI SIPG 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Dec 2022, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 34% | Draw 28% | SHANGHAI SIPG 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.26 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.196 / def 1.011 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.990 / def 0.734 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.36
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 07:00 on Tuesday 27 December 2022 at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Beijing Guoan 0 - 3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 34% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (2 meetings): Beijing Guoan 1W | Draws 1 | SHANGHAI SIPG 0W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Beijing Guoan's attack at 1.20x the league average against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (0.99x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
34%
2.97
28%
3.56
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.62
1.36
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
9%
11.60
11%
9.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.36 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Beijing Guoan have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 26W 13D 15L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form line: 31W 11D 12L from 54 games, 1.93 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Beijing Guoan against 1.93 for SHANGHAI SIPG. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Beijing Guoan have posted 1.89 PPG from 27 outings (14W 9D 4L).
On the road, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 12W 8D 7L from 27 away games — 1.63 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.67 scored and 0.72 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 26W 13D 15L in their last 54 games (1.69 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 31W 11D 12L in their last 54 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.89 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 5-1 on 12 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
3
Draws
4
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 10 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 3, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beijing Guoan see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 63%, SHANGHAI SIPG 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Beijing Guoan) and 52% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG in 33%; SHANGHAI SIPG in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Beijing Guoan's games and 56% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 52% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Beijing Guoan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Beijing Guoan 0-3 at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.26 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.36 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Beijing Guoan fell 1.3 short of their projected output. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.20 / defence 1.01 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.99 / defence 0.73, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 34% | Draw 28% | SHANGHAI SIPG 38%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 59%, SHANGHAI SIPG 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.69 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SHANGHAI SIPG win broke the near-deadlock. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.