Shenyang Urban 1-5 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shenyang Urban at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenyang Urban vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tiexi Stadium plays host to Shenyang Urban versus Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 27 June 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Shandong Luneng's overall Super League record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Shandong Luneng away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Shenyang Urban, 1 for Shandong Luneng and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 0–3 with Shandong Luneng winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenyang Urban 1.72 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenyang Urban attack 0.905 / defence 1.032 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.920 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.334. Data: 15 Shenyang Urban games / 45 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 48% | Draw 24% | Shandong Luneng 28%. Fair-value odds: Shenyang Urban 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Shandong Luneng 3.57. Shenyang Urban hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shenyang Urban as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shenyang Urban if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenyang Urban vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Tiexi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jun 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 48% | Draw 24% | Shandong Luneng 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Shenyang Urban 1.72 / Shandong Luneng 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Shenyang Urban attack 0.905 / def 1.032 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.920 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Shenyang Urban (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Shenyang Urban xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Shandong Luneng xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenyang Urban vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Shenyang Urban vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 27 June 2026 at Tiexi Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenyang Urban vs Shandong Luneng?
Shenyang Urban 1 - 5 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Shenyang Urban vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Tiexi Stadium.
What competition is Shenyang Urban vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Shenyang Urban vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenyang Urban vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Shenyang Urban a 48% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shenyang Urban the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenyang Urban vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Shenyang Urban and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Shenyang Urban vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Shandong Luneng?
Record (1 meetings): Shenyang Urban 0W | Draws 0 | Shandong Luneng 1W.
What form are Shenyang Urban and Shandong Luneng in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Shandong Luneng away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Shenyang Urban's attack rating (0.91) and Shandong Luneng's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (0.92x) against Shenyang Urban's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenyang Urban Win
48%
2.08
24%
4.22
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Shenyang Urban xG
Total xG
2.98
1.27
Shandong Luneng xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
5%
19.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenyang Urban vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Shenyang Urban and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Shenyang Urban and 1.27 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenyang Urban vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenyang Urban
Pre-Season
Shandong Luneng
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Shenyang Urban
0
Draws
2
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Shandong Luneng?
From 2 meetings on record, Shenyang Urban have won 0, Shandong Luneng have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenyang Urban and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Shenyang Urban 1-5 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shenyang Urban and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenyang Urban home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Shenyang Urban.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Shenyang Urban 1-5 at Tiexi Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenyang Urban 1.72 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.27 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Shandong Luneng outscored their 1.27 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenyang Urban attack 0.91 / defence 1.03 against Shandong Luneng attack 0.92 / defence 1.15, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenyang Urban 48% | Draw 24% | Shandong Luneng 28%, with Shenyang Urban to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Shandong Luneng win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.