SHANGHAI SIPG 2-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG host Tianjin Teda at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena in Super League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 3 August 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
SHANGHAI SIPG — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 7W 2D 1L at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, SHANGHAI SIPG have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SHANGHAI SIPG register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Tianjin Teda in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 2, Tianjin Teda 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 46% versus Tianjin Teda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 50% | Tianjin Teda 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.38 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.208 / defence 0.912 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.947 / defence 0.760. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.213. Tianjin Teda's defence strength of 0.760 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 52 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 42% | Draw 32% | Tianjin Teda 26%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Tianjin Teda 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 70% | Tianjin Teda 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: SAIC Motor Pudong Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 3 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 42% | Draw 32% | Tianjin Teda 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.38 / Tianjin Teda 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.208 / def 0.912 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.947 / def 0.760 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Tianjin Teda xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:35 on Thursday 3 August 2023 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda?
SHANGHAI SIPG 2 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 42% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda?
Record (4 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 2W | Draws 1 | Tianjin Teda 1W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SHANGHAI SIPG's attack rating (1.21) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
42%
2.39
32%
3.13
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.42
1.05
Tianjin Teda xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
7%
15.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.05 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, SHANGHAI SIPG have picked up 2.13 PPG on a 34W 9D 9L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 20W 19D 13L from 52 games, 1.52 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-D. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SHANGHAI SIPG are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tianjin Teda.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 2.20 PPG from 25 outings (17W 4D 4L).
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 10W 8D 7L from 25 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.35 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 34W 9D 9L in their last 52 games (2.13 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 20W 19D 13L in their last 52 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Tianjin Teda away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.20 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.52 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2021, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
SHANGHAI SIPG
3
Draws
1
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 6, Tianjin Teda have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 48%, Tianjin Teda 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 36% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Tianjin Teda in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 52% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 36% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Tianjin Teda 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Tianjin Teda 2-1 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.38 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.05 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.21 / defence 0.91 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.95 / defence 0.76, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 42% | Draw 32% | Tianjin Teda 26%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 50%, Tianjin Teda 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.52. Form held, and they took the win. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.