Beijing Guoan 3-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye meet at Workers' Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Friday 4 August 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beijing Guoan have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 5W 4D 1L at Workers' Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Beijing Guoan are significantly better at Workers' Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Henan Jianye have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Beijing Guoan, 1.20 for Henan Jianye — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Beijing Guoan 2W, Henan Jianye 1W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2023, ended 1–0 with Beijing Guoan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Beijing Guoan — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 60% versus Henan Jianye 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 62% | Henan Jianye 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.03 xG and Henan Jianye 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.301 / defence 0.884 | Henan Jianye attack 0.747 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.213. Beijing Guoan carry an above-average attack strength of 1.301 — their λ of 2.03 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 53 Beijing Guoan games / 52 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 64% | Draw 24% | Henan Jianye 12%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.56 | Draw 4.17 | Henan Jianye 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (64%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Beijing Guoan 60% | Henan Jianye 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 4 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 64% | Draw 24% | Henan Jianye 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 50% | xG Beijing Guoan 2.03 / Henan Jianye 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.301 / def 0.884 | Henan Jianye attack 0.747 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Henan Jianye xG
50%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 4 August 2023 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?
Beijing Guoan 3 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 64% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 12% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye?
Record (3 meetings): Beijing Guoan 2W | Draws 0 | Henan Jianye 1W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.75x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 53/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
64%
1.56
24%
4.21
12%
8.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.83
0.80
Henan Jianye xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
8.35
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
13%
7.62
Win to Nil
29%
3.47
2%
63.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 0.80 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, Beijing Guoan have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 24W 14D 14L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Henan Jianye's form line: 20W 15D 17L from 52 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Beijing Guoan against 1.44 for Henan Jianye. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Beijing Guoan have posted 1.81 PPG from 26 outings (13W 8D 5L).
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 8W 8D 10L from 26 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.42 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 24W 14D 14L in their last 52 games (1.65 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 20W 15D 17L in their last 52 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Henan Jianye away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.81 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Henan Jianye have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won 3-0 on 7 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
1
Draws
4
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye?
From 9 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Henan Jianye have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Beijing Guoan 1-2 Henan Jianye.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 54%, Henan Jianye 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Beijing Guoan) and 35% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 31%; Henan Jianye in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 46% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 35% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Henan Jianye.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Henan Jianye 3-1 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.03 xG and Henan Jianye 0.80 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.30 / defence 0.88 against Henan Jianye attack 0.75 / defence 1.04, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 64% | Draw 24% | Henan Jianye 12%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 62%, Henan Jianye 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.65 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.