SHANGHAI SIPG 3-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG host Shijiazhuang Y. J. at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena in Super League (matchday 18). Kick-off is Friday 21 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Guide
SHANGHAI SIPG — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from SHANGHAI SIPG's last 10 home games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for SHANGHAI SIPG, 0 for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 26 Apr 2023, ended SHANGHAI SIPG 1–0 Shijiazhuang Y. J. — a SHANGHAI SIPG win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 47% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 47% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.96 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.174 / defence 1.020 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.167 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.204. Data: built from SHANGHAI SIPG's last 51 games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 51.
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 48% | Draw 25% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 27%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 2.08 | Draw 3.96 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.75. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.96 / 1.44) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (SHANGHAI SIPG's last 10 home games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SHANGHAI SIPG 70% (last 10 home games) | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, matchday 18 | Venue: SAIC Motor Pudong Arena • Kick-off: Friday 21 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 48% | Draw 25% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.96 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.174 / def 1.020 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.167 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. FAQs
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Friday 21 July 2023 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
SHANGHAI SIPG 3 - 0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Super League fixture (matchday 18) (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 48% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SHANGHAI SIPG's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SHANGHAI SIPG's last 51 games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
48%
2.08
25%
3.96
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
3.39
1.44
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
14%
7.07
Win to Nil
11%
8.73
4%
26.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.44 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SHANGHAI SIPG come into this having played 51 games, going 32W 9D 10L for 2.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Shijiazhuang Y. J. sit at 1.27 PPG from 51 outings (16W 17D 18L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
SHANGHAI SIPG's home form reads 16W 4D 4L across their last 24 home games, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 24 away games (10W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.33 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG (Home) vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. Form FAQs
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 32W 9D 10L in their last 51 games (2.06 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 16W 17D 18L in their last 51 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.17 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 1.50 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Shijiazhuang Y. J. been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 27 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
SHANGHAI SIPG have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Jul 2023, when SHANGHAI SIPG won SHANGHAI SIPG 3-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
SHANGHAI SIPG
1
Draws
0
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 5, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 October 2024: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 50%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 62% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 67% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 62% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 92% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3-0 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.96 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.44 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shijiazhuang Y. J. landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.17 / defence 1.02 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.17 / defence 1.12, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 48% | Draw 25% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 27%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 47%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.