SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SHANGHAI SIPG face Shanghai Shenhua.

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Analysis & Preview

Shanghai Shenhua travel to SAIC Motor Pudong Arena to take on SHANGHAI SIPG in Super League (matchday 8). The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 13:35 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Shanghai Shenhua stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.40 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for SHANGHAI SIPG, 1 for Shanghai Shenhua and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Jul 2023, ended SHANGHAI SIPG 5–0 Shanghai Shenhua — a SHANGHAI SIPG win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 50% versus Shanghai Shenhua 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 52% | Shanghai Shenhua 38%). Note also that Shanghai Shenhua surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while SHANGHAI SIPG recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.40 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.506 / defence 1.064 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.206 / defence 0.686. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.386. SHANGHAI SIPG carry an above-average attack rating of 1.506 — their 1.40 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Shanghai Shenhua bring a tight defence (rating 0.686, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling SHANGHAI SIPG's projected output down. Shanghai Shenhua have an above-average attack rating of 1.206, which lifts their away xG to 1.78. Data: built from SHANGHAI SIPG's last 36 games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 37.

Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 30% | Draw 23% | Shanghai Shenhua 47%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 3.30 | Draw 4.33 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.15. Shanghai Shenhua hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.40 / 1.78) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% (last 10 home games) | Shanghai Shenhua 50% (last 10 away games).

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