Sichuan Jiuniu 1-3 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Sichuan Jiuniu take on Qingdao Jonoon.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Qingdao Jonoon travel to Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium to take on Sichuan Jiuniu. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 April 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, Qingdao Jonoon stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 0.90 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.747 / defence 1.268 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.532 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.326. Sichuan Jiuniu's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 37 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 33% | Draw 34% | Qingdao Jonoon 33%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.79 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 33% | Draw 34% | Qingdao Jonoon 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 0.90 / Qingdao Jonoon 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.747 / def 1.268 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.532 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Qingdao Jonoon xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 26 April 2024 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Sichuan Jiuniu 1 - 3 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 33% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Qingdao Jonoon away split: 0.30 PPG from 10 | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sichuan Jiuniu's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Jonoon's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Sichuan Jiuniu's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.01
34%
2.94
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
1.79
0.89
Qingdao Jonoon xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
13%
7.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 14.9 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 0.89 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sichuan Jiuniu have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Jul 2025, when Sichuan Jiuniu won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sichuan Jiuniu's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Sichuan Jiuniu
0
Draws
2
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 5 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 3, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 3-2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Qingdao Jonoon?
Sichuan Jiuniu have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Qingdao Jonoon cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sichuan Jiuniu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-3 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 0.90 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.89 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon outscored their 0.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.75 / defence 1.27 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.53 / defence 0.88, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 33% | Draw 34% | Qingdao Jonoon 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Qingdao Jonoon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.