SHANGHAI SIPG 2-2 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SHANGHAI SIPG face Qingdao Youth Island.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG host Qingdao Youth Island at Pudong Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 July 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SHANGHAI SIPG — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Pudong Football Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Youth Island have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Youth Island have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SHANGHAI SIPG register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 2, Qingdao Youth Island 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 5.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Mar 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Qingdao Youth Island trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SHANGHAI SIPG 66% and Qingdao Youth Island 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 74% | Qingdao Youth Island 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.71 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.081 / defence 0.923 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.779 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.688 / away 1.298. Data: 47 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 47 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 56% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 20%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Qingdao Youth Island 5.00. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 5.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: SHANGHAI SIPG 70% | Qingdao Youth Island 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Pudong Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Jul 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 56% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.71 / Qingdao Youth Island 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.081 / def 0.923 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.779 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.688 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Qingdao Youth Island xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 26 July 2025 at Pudong Football Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island?
SHANGHAI SIPG 2 - 2 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Pudong Football Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 56% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (3 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 2W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Youth Island 0W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SHANGHAI SIPG's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Youth Island's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Youth Island's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
56%
1.80
24%
4.13
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.65
0.93
Qingdao Youth Island xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
18%
5.54
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
4%
27.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.3 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0.93 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SHANGHAI SIPG come into this having played 47 games, going 36W 7D 4L for 2.45 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Qingdao Youth Island sit at 1.15 PPG from 47 outings (13W 15D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.30 PPG clear of Qingdao Youth Island — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
SHANGHAI SIPG's home form reads 18W 3D 2L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Qingdao Youth Island have taken 0.96 points per game from 23 outings (6W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 2.87 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.34 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 36W 7D 4L in their last 47 games (2.45 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 13W 15D 19L in their last 47 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.48 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 0.96 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Qingdao Youth Island been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Qingdao Youth Island in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Mar 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Qingdao Youth Island specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
2
Draws
1
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 6 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, Qingdao Youth Island have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 2-1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SHANGHAI SIPG at 74%, Qingdao Youth Island at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for SHANGHAI SIPG and 65% for Qingdao Youth Island. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Youth Island in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Qingdao Youth Island?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 61% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of SHANGHAI SIPG's matches and 65% of Qingdao Youth Island's.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island drew 2-2 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.71 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.93 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.08 / defence 0.92 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.78 / defence 0.94, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 56% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 20%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 74%, Qingdao Youth Island 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.