Shandong Luneng 4-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shandong Luneng host Tianjin Teda at Jinan Olympic Sports Center in Super League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 October 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Shandong Luneng — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Jinan Olympic Sports Center this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at Jinan Olympic Sports Center than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Tianjin Teda are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Shandong Luneng have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 5 past contests while Tianjin Teda have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shandong Luneng and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Shandong Luneng in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 51% versus Tianjin Teda 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 53% | Tianjin Teda 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.55 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 0.843 / defence 0.782 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.049 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.849 / away 1.354. Shandong Luneng's defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Shandong Luneng games / 57 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 47% | Draw 25% | Tianjin Teda 27%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Tianjin Teda 3.70. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Shandong Luneng dominate the H2H record, yet Tianjin Teda are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Tianjin Teda (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shandong Luneng 50% | Tianjin Teda 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center • Kick-off: Friday 18 Oct 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 47% | Draw 25% | Tianjin Teda 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Shandong Luneng 1.55 / Tianjin Teda 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 0.843 / def 0.782 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.049 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.849 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Tianjin Teda xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 18 October 2024 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Shandong Luneng 4 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 47% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda?
Record (5 meetings): Shandong Luneng 3W | Draws 2 | Tianjin Teda 0W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shandong Luneng's attack at 0.84x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
47%
2.11
25%
3.95
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
2.66
1.11
Tianjin Teda xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
6%
17.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.11 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shandong Luneng's recent record stands at 27W 18D 12L from 57 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 22W 21D 14L across 57 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shandong Luneng on 1.74 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shandong Luneng have managed 18W 6D 4L from 28 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 11W 6D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shandong Luneng are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.44 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda in 63%.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 27W 18D 12L in their last 57 games (1.74 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 22W 21D 14L in their last 57 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.14 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shandong Luneng go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2022, when Shandong Luneng won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Shandong Luneng
2
Draws
1
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda?
From 9 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 6, Tianjin Teda have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Tianjin Teda 1-2 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 50%, Tianjin Teda 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Shandong Luneng) and 54% (Tianjin Teda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Shandong Luneng's games and 68% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 54% of Tianjin Teda's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Tianjin Teda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Tianjin Teda 4-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.55 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.11 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 0.84 / defence 0.78 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.05 / defence 0.99, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 47% | Draw 25% | Tianjin Teda 27%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 53%, Tianjin Teda 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shandong Luneng 1.74 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shandong Luneng win broke the near-deadlock. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.