Shandong Luneng 2-0 Qingdao Huanghai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 43% as Shandong Luneng take on Qingdao Huanghai.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Qingdao Huanghai travel to Tianhe Stadium to take on Shandong Luneng in Super League (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 May 2021 at 12:00 UK time.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 0.81 xG and Qingdao Huanghai 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 0.979 / defence 1.004 | Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.705 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 0.799 / away 1.156. Qingdao Huanghai's attack rating of 0.705 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Data: built from Shandong Luneng's last 3 games and Qingdao Huanghai's last 3. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 28% | Draw 43% | Qingdao Huanghai 29%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 3.54 | Draw 2.34 | Qingdao Huanghai 3.46. The draw (43%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.62. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.62 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Shandong Luneng's lower xG of 0.81 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 43% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.62 combined xG gives a 78% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Shandong Luneng 3 games, Qingdao Huanghai 3) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Huanghai | Competition: Super League, matchday 4 | Venue: Tianhe Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2021 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 28% | Draw 43% | Qingdao Huanghai 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% (Under 78%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Shandong Luneng 0.81 / Qingdao Huanghai 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 0.979 / def 1.004 | Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.705 / def 1.029 | league avg home 0.799 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Draw (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Qingdao Huanghai xG
35%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Huanghai FAQs
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Huanghai kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Huanghai kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 8 May 2021 at Tianhe Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Shandong Luneng 2 - 0 Qingdao Huanghai.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Huanghai being played?
The match is being played at Tianhe Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Huanghai part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Huanghai is a Super League fixture (matchday 4) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 28% chance of winning, Qingdao Huanghai a 29% chance, and a 43% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Huanghai will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Huanghai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (78%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shandong Luneng's attack rating (0.98) and Qingdao Huanghai's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Huanghai's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shandong Luneng's last 3 games and Qingdao Huanghai's last 3, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.54
43%
2.34
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
1.62
0.82
Qingdao Huanghai xG
3.54
28%
Home win
2.34
43%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.87
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
12%
8.01
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.7 | 16.1 | 6.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Huanghai Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.4%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Huanghai expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.82 for Qingdao Huanghai, a combined total of 1.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Pre-Season
Qingdao Huanghai
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Shandong Luneng (Home) vs Qingdao Huanghai (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shandong Luneng
Pre-Season
Qingdao Huanghai
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 2 August 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Shandong Luneng
0
Draws
0
Qingdao Huanghai
Recent Meetings
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Huanghai H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Huanghai?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Shandong Luneng have won 2, Qingdao Huanghai have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Huanghai last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2021: Qingdao Huanghai 0-5 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Huanghai?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Qingdao Huanghai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shandong Luneng cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Qingdao Huanghai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Qingdao Huanghai 2-0 at Tianhe Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 0.81 xG and Qingdao Huanghai 0.82 xG, a combined 1.62. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Qingdao Huanghai landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.70 / defence 1.03, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 28% | Draw 43% | Qingdao Huanghai 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 43%. The actual Shandong Luneng win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.