Shandong Luneng 2-1 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 67% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 30 as Shandong Luneng welcome Meizhou Kejia to Jinan Olympic Sports Center. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 November 2024 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shandong Luneng stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 6W 2D 2L at Jinan Olympic Sports Center — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at Jinan Olympic Sports Center than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Meizhou Kejia have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Meizhou Kejia have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Shandong Luneng 1.40 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Shandong Luneng, 1 for Meizhou Kejia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Shandong Luneng in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Meizhou Kejia in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 52% versus Meizhou Kejia 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 54% | Meizhou Kejia 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 2.13 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 0.996 / defence 0.826 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.802 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.823 / away 1.272. Data: 59 Shandong Luneng games / 59 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 67% | Draw 20% | Meizhou Kejia 13%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | Meizhou Kejia 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Shandong Luneng 50% | Meizhou Kejia 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 67% | Draw 20% | Meizhou Kejia 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 51% | xG Shandong Luneng 2.13 / Meizhou Kejia 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 0.996 / def 0.826 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.802 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.823 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (67%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Meizhou Kejia xG
51%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia?
Shandong Luneng 2 - 1 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 67% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (5 meetings): Shandong Luneng 3W | Draws 1 | Meizhou Kejia 1W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shandong Luneng's attack rating (1.00) and Meizhou Kejia's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 2.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Meizhou Kejia's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
67%
1.50
20%
5.01
13%
7.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
2.98
0.84
Meizhou Kejia xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.01
20%
Draw
7.51
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
12%
8.45
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
2%
63.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.84 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 59 games, going 28W 19D 12L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Meizhou Kejia sit at 1.03 PPG from 59 outings (15W 16D 28L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 19W 6D 4L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Meizhou Kejia have taken 0.69 points per game from 29 outings (4W 8D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shandong Luneng are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.19 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia in 61%.
Last 59 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 28W 19D 12L in their last 59 games (1.75 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 15W 16D 28L in their last 59 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.17 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Meizhou Kejia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Meizhou Kejia in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 27 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shandong Luneng have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Aug 2023, when Shandong Luneng won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Meizhou Kejia specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Shandong Luneng
1
Draws
1
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia?
From 8 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 6, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2025, when Shandong Luneng 3-0 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 52%, Meizhou Kejia 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Shandong Luneng and 62% for Meizhou Kejia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Meizhou Kejia in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Meizhou Kejia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Shandong Luneng's games and 59% of Meizhou Kejia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 62% of Meizhou Kejia's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shandong Luneng edge out Meizhou Kejia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Meizhou Kejia 2-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 2.13 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.84 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.00 / defence 0.83 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.80 / defence 1.18, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 67% | Draw 20% | Meizhou Kejia 13%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 54%, Meizhou Kejia 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.