Qingdao Youth Island 0-2 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nantong Zhiyun at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Nantong Zhiyun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Youth Island host Nantong Zhiyun at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 April 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all Super League games this season, Nantong Zhiyun have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Nantong Zhiyun away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.00 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.814 / defence 1.147 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.873 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.313. Data: 7 Qingdao Youth Island games / 37 Nantong Zhiyun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 28% | Draw 29% | Nantong Zhiyun 43%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Nantong Zhiyun 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nantong Zhiyun as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nantong Zhiyun offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Apr 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 28% | Draw 29% | Nantong Zhiyun 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 1.00 / Nantong Zhiyun 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.814 / def 1.147 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.873 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Nantong Zhiyun (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Nantong Zhiyun xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 26 April 2024 at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Qingdao Youth Island 0 - 2 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 28% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Nantong Zhiyun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Nantong Zhiyun will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Nantong Zhiyun?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Nantong Zhiyun in?
Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Nantong Zhiyun away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Qingdao Youth Island's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Nantong Zhiyun's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Nantong Zhiyun's attack versus Qingdao Youth Island's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantong Zhiyun Win
28%
3.61
29%
3.45
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
2.31
1.31
Nantong Zhiyun xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
7%
13.46
16%
6.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.31 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Pre-Season
Nantong Zhiyun
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Youth Island and Nantong Zhiyun runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Qingdao Youth Island
0
Draws
1
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Nantong Zhiyun?
From 2 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 1, Nantong Zhiyun have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2024, when Nantong Zhiyun 0-3 Qingdao Youth Island.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Nantong Zhiyun cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Qingdao Youth Island.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantong Zhiyun beat Qingdao Youth Island 0-2 at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.00 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.31 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.81 / defence 1.15 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.87 / defence 0.88, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 28% | Draw 29% | Nantong Zhiyun 43%, with Nantong Zhiyun to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.