Qingdao Youth Island 2-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Youth Island host Henan Jianye at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center in Super League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 August 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Qingdao Youth Island — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Youth Island at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Qingdao Youth Island are significantly better at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Qingdao Youth Island at 1.10 PPG versus Henan Jianye's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Qingdao Youth Island have won 1, Henan Jianye 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2025, ended 3–2 with Qingdao Youth Island winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Qingdao Youth Island in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Qingdao Youth Island 60% and Henan Jianye 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 56% | Henan Jianye 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.31 xG and Henan Jianye 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.824 / defence 0.950 | Henan Jianye attack 0.951 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.763 / away 1.328. Data: 48 Qingdao Youth Island games / 48 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 39% | Draw 27% | Henan Jianye 34%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Henan Jianye 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Qingdao Youth Island are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Youth Island 50% | Henan Jianye 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Aug 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 39% | Draw 27% | Henan Jianye 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 1.31 / Henan Jianye 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.824 / def 0.950 | Henan Jianye attack 0.951 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.763 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Youth Island (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Henan Jianye xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 2 August 2025 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye?
Qingdao Youth Island 2 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 39% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Youth Island the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Henan Jianye?
Record (3 meetings): Qingdao Youth Island 1W | Draws 1 | Henan Jianye 1W.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Henan Jianye in?
Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Henan Jianye (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Qingdao Youth Island's attack at 0.82x the league average against Henan Jianye's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Qingdao Youth Island's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Youth Island Win
39%
2.55
27%
3.72
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
2.51
1.20
Henan Jianye xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
12%
8.46
9%
10.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.20 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Qingdao Youth Island come into this having played 48 games, going 13W 16D 19L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.08 PPG from 48 outings (13W 13D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Qingdao Youth Island on 1.15 PPG, Henan Jianye on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Qingdao Youth Island's home form reads 7W 11D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 0.96 points per game from 24 outings (5W 8D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Qingdao Youth Island are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.27 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Henan Jianye in 62%.
Last 48 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Qingdao Youth Island have gone 13W 16D 19L in their last 48 games (1.15 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 13W 13D 22L in their last 48 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Youth Island at home or Henan Jianye away?
Qingdao Youth Island's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Youth Island at home: 1.33 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Qingdao Youth Island's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Qingdao Youth Island
3
Draws
1
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Henan Jianye?
From 6 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 2, Henan Jianye have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Henan Jianye 0-0 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Youth Island and Henan Jianye?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Youth Island 58%, Henan Jianye 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Qingdao Youth Island) and 50% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Youth Island play Henan Jianye?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Qingdao Youth Island's games and 58% of Henan Jianye's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Qingdao Youth Island's recent games and 50% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Youth Island and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Qingdao Youth Island have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Qingdao Youth Island edge out Henan Jianye 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island beat Henan Jianye 2-1 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.31 xG and Henan Jianye 1.20 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.82 / defence 0.95 against Henan Jianye attack 0.95 / defence 0.90, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 39% | Draw 27% | Henan Jianye 34%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 56%, Henan Jianye 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Youth Island 1.15 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Youth Island win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.