Qingdao Jonoon 3-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Tianjin Teda make the trip to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to face Qingdao Jonoon in Super League (matchday 14). The match kicks off on Sunday 26 May 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form

Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Qingdao Jonoon at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Tianjin Teda's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Tianjin Teda's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Tianjin Teda arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Qingdao Jonoon, 2 for Tianjin Teda and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended Qingdao Jonoon 1–4 Tianjin Teda — a Tianjin Teda win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Qingdao Jonoon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 43% of games.

Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 83%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 43% versus Tianjin Teda 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 47% | Tianjin Teda 37%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Qingdao Jonoon surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Tianjin Teda have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 83% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.22 xG and Tianjin Teda 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.810 / defence 1.079 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.297 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.471. Tianjin Teda have an above-average attack rating of 1.297, which lifts their away xG to 2.06. Data: built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 43 games and Tianjin Teda's last 43.

Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 21% | Draw 23% | Tianjin Teda 56%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 4.71 | Draw 4.36 | Tianjin Teda 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Tianjin Teda (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.22 / 2.06) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Qingdao Jonoon's last 10 home games and Tianjin Teda's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Qingdao Jonoon 50% (last 10 home games) | Tianjin Teda 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights