Qingdao Jonoon 3-4 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Qingdao Jonoon face SHANGHAI SIPG.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon host SHANGHAI SIPG at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 October 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG away from home this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. SHANGHAI SIPG's 2.30 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Qingdao Jonoon's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
SHANGHAI SIPG have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 5 encounters against Qingdao Jonoon's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2025, ended 1–3 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SHANGHAI SIPG have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Qingdao Jonoon in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 61%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 41% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 39% | SHANGHAI SIPG 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.62 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.914 / defence 0.965 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.454 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.832 / away 1.376. SHANGHAI SIPG have an above-average attack strength of 1.454 — the away xG of 1.93 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Qingdao Jonoon games / 56 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 32% | Draw 23% | SHANGHAI SIPG 45%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 3.12 | Draw 4.35 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.22. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.93) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.55 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 50% | SHANGHAI SIPG 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 Oct 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 32% | Draw 23% | SHANGHAI SIPG 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.62 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.914 / def 0.965 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.454 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.832 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.93
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 17 October 2025 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Qingdao Jonoon 3 - 4 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 32% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 45% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (5 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 0W | Draws 0 | SHANGHAI SIPG 5W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Qingdao Jonoon's attack at 0.91x the league average against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
32%
3.12
23%
4.29
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
3.55
1.93
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
3.12
32%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
15%
6.89
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
5%
21.50
9%
11.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.93 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Qingdao Jonoon's recent record stands at 11W 14D 31L from 56 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG, meanwhile, have gone 42W 9D 5L across 56 games — 2.41 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SHANGHAI SIPG by 1.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Jonoon heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Qingdao Jonoon have managed 9W 9D 9L from 27 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.84 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record stands at 20W 4D 3L across 27 trips, a 2.37 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 2.84 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG in 71%.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 11W 14D 31L in their last 56 games (0.84 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 42W 9D 5L in their last 56 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.33 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Aug 2023, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Qingdao Jonoon
0
Draws
7
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 8 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 2-1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 52%, SHANGHAI SIPG 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 78% (SHANGHAI SIPG). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG in 37%; Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Qingdao Jonoon's games and 63% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of Qingdao Jonoon's matches and 78% of SHANGHAI SIPG's.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Qingdao Jonoon 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Qingdao Jonoon 3-4 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.62 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.93 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 1.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.91 / defence 0.96 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.45 / defence 0.97, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 32% | Draw 23% | SHANGHAI SIPG 45%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 39%, SHANGHAI SIPG 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.