Qingdao Jonoon 1-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon host Henan Jianye at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 August 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon's home record at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Qingdao Jonoon at 0.80 PPG versus Henan Jianye's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Qingdao Jonoon, 3 for Henan Jianye and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2025, ended 1–3 with Henan Jianye winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Henan Jianye in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 38% versus Henan Jianye 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 38% | Henan Jianye 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.83 xG and Henan Jianye 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.943 / defence 0.941 | Henan Jianye attack 0.903 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.759 / away 1.344. Data: 52 Qingdao Jonoon games / 52 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 52% | Draw 26% | Henan Jianye 22%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Henan Jianye 4.55. Qingdao Jonoon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Qingdao Jonoon at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 40% | Henan Jianye 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Aug 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 52% | Draw 26% | Henan Jianye 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.83 / Henan Jianye 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.943 / def 0.941 | Henan Jianye attack 0.903 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.759 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Henan Jianye xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 29 August 2025 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye?
Qingdao Jonoon 1 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 52% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye?
Record (5 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 1W | Draws 1 | Henan Jianye 3W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Qingdao Jonoon's attack at 0.94x the league average against Henan Jianye's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
52%
1.93
26%
3.80
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.97
1.14
Henan Jianye xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
17%
6.06
4%
28.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.14 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Qingdao Jonoon come into this having played 52 games, going 11W 11D 30L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.12 PPG from 52 outings (15W 13D 24L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Qingdao Jonoon on 0.85 PPG, Henan Jianye on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Qingdao Jonoon's home form reads 9W 7D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.85 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 0.88 points per game from 26 outings (5W 8D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Jonoon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.37 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye in 63%.
Last 52 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 11W 11D 30L in their last 52 games (0.85 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 15W 13D 24L in their last 52 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Henan Jianye away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.31 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2026, when Henan Jianye won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Qingdao Jonoon
2
Draws
4
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye?
From 8 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Henan Jianye have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Henan Jianye 5-1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 46%, Henan Jianye 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 54% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 35% of games; Henan Jianye in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 62% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 54% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.83 xG and Henan Jianye 1.14 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.94 / defence 0.94 against Henan Jianye attack 0.90 / defence 1.10, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 52% | Draw 26% | Henan Jianye 22%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 38%, Henan Jianye 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.85 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.