Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon welcome Chengdu Better City to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Super League (matchday 6). Kick-off is Saturday 12 April 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Chengdu Better City stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Chengdu Better City's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Chengdu Better City's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Qingdao Jonoon's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Qingdao Jonoon, 3 for Chengdu Better City and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Jun 2024, ended Qingdao Jonoon 1–5 Chengdu Better City — a Chengdu Better City win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
Chengdu Better City in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 40% versus Chengdu Better City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 43% | Chengdu Better City 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 0.89 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.771 / defence 1.006 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.178 / defence 0.706. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.456. Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating of 0.771 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Chengdu Better City bring a tight defence (rating 0.706, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Qingdao Jonoon's projected output down. Data: built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 35 games and Chengdu Better City's last 35.
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 17% | Draw 28% | Chengdu Better City 55%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 5.90 | Draw 3.54 | Chengdu Better City 1.83. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (55%) — a 27pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Qingdao Jonoon 60% (last 10 home games) | Chengdu Better City 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, matchday 6 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 April 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 17% | Draw 28% | Chengdu Better City 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Qingdao Jonoon 0.89 / Chengdu Better City 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.771 / def 1.006 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.178 / def 0.706 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Chengdu Better City xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City FAQs
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City?
Qingdao Jonoon 0 - 1 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City is a Super League fixture (matchday 6) (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 17% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 55% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating (0.77) and Chengdu Better City's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chengdu Better City's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 35 games and Chengdu Better City's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-2 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
17%
5.90
28%
3.54
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.62
1.73
Chengdu Better City xG
5.90
17%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
18%
5.62
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
3%
33.15
22%
4.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 12.6 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.73 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Qingdao Jonoon's recent record stands at 15W 12D 33L from 60 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Chengdu Better City, meanwhile, have gone 33W 13D 14L across 60 games — 1.87 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chengdu Better City by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Jonoon heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Qingdao Jonoon have managed 13W 6D 11L from their last 30 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Chengdu Better City's away record stands at 13W 8D 9L across their last 30 away games, a 1.57 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.93 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Qingdao Jonoon (Home) vs Chengdu Better City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City Form FAQs
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 15W 12D 33L in their last 60 games (0.95 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 33W 13D 14L in their last 60 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Chengdu Better City's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.50 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Qingdao Jonoon or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Qingdao Jonoon have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 5 July 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Jun 2024, when Chengdu Better City won Qingdao Jonoon 1-5 Chengdu Better City.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Chengdu Better City specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Qingdao Jonoon
2
Draws
5
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Chengdu Better City have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 July 2026: Qingdao Jonoon 1-1 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 47%, Chengdu Better City 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 50% (Chengdu Better City).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 57% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 50% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 80% of Chengdu Better City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chengdu Better City edge out Qingdao Jonoon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 0.89 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.73 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Jonoon fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.77 / defence 1.01 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.18 / defence 0.71, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 17% | Draw 28% | Chengdu Better City 55%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 43%, Chengdu Better City 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.