Qingdao Jonoon 3-0 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Changchun Yatai travel to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to take on Qingdao Jonoon. The game is scheduled for Monday 5 May 2025, 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 5W 2D 3L at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Changchun Yatai stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Super League this season, Changchun Yatai have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Qingdao Jonoon at 1.00 PPG versus Changchun Yatai's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Qingdao Jonoon register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Changchun Yatai in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Changchun Yatai 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2024, ended 0–5 with Changchun Yatai winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Qingdao Jonoon in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 40% versus Changchun Yatai 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 43% | Changchun Yatai 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.45 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.697 / defence 0.936 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.907 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.437. Qingdao Jonoon's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 1.45 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Changchun Yatai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Qingdao Jonoon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Qingdao Jonoon games / 40 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 41% | Draw 28% | Changchun Yatai 31%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Changchun Yatai 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Qingdao Jonoon at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.6 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 60% | Changchun Yatai 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 5 May 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 41% | Draw 28% | Changchun Yatai 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.45 / Changchun Yatai 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.697 / def 0.936 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.907 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Changchun Yatai xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 12:35 on Monday 5 May 2025 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai?
Qingdao Jonoon 3 - 0 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 41% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai?
Record (4 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 1W | Draws 0 | Changchun Yatai 3W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Qingdao Jonoon's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
41%
2.41
28%
3.58
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.67
1.22
Changchun Yatai xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
7%
13.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.22 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Qingdao Jonoon's recent record stands at 15W 12D 33L from 60 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Changchun Yatai, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 25L across 60 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Qingdao Jonoon on 0.95 PPG, Changchun Yatai on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Qingdao Jonoon have managed 13W 6D 11L from 30 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Changchun Yatai's away record stands at 6W 8D 16L across 30 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Jonoon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.50 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Changchun Yatai in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 15W 12D 33L in their last 60 games (0.95 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.50 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jun 2024, when Changchun Yatai won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Qingdao Jonoon
1
Draws
3
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai?
From 6 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Changchun Yatai have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when Changchun Yatai 2-2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 47%, Changchun Yatai 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 57% (Changchun Yatai).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 30% of games; Changchun Yatai in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Changchun Yatai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 57% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 57% of Changchun Yatai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Qingdao Jonoon run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon beat Changchun Yatai 3-0 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.45 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.22 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Changchun Yatai landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.70 / defence 0.94 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.91 / defence 1.24, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 41% | Draw 28% | Changchun Yatai 31%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 43%, Changchun Yatai 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.95 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Jonoon win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.