Henan Jianye 2-3 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Henan Jianye face Wuhan Three Towns.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Henan Jianye host Wuhan Three Towns at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League (matchday 12). Kick-off is Friday 17 May 2024 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Guide
Henan Jianye — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Henan Jianye at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Wuhan Three Towns stand at 7W 0D 3L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Wuhan Three Towns's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Henan Jianye at 1.70 PPG versus Wuhan Three Towns's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Henan Jianye's games and 90% of Wuhan Three Towns's (from Henan Jianye's last 10 home games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Henan Jianye have won 1, Wuhan Three Towns 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Aug 2023, ended Henan Jianye 2–4 Wuhan Three Towns — a Wuhan Three Towns win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Wuhan Three Towns in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 49% versus Wuhan Three Towns 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 49% | Wuhan Three Towns 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.45 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.858 / defence 0.975 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.046 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.440. Data: built from Henan Jianye's last 41 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 41.
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 37% | Draw 26% | Wuhan Three Towns 38%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.74 | Draw 3.87 | Wuhan Three Towns 2.66. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Three Towns at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Henan Jianye's last 10 home games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Henan Jianye 60% (last 10 home games) | Wuhan Three Towns 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, matchday 12 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 37% | Draw 26% | Wuhan Three Towns 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Henan Jianye 1.45 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.858 / def 0.975 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.046 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.440 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Wuhan Three Towns xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns FAQs
What time does Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Friday 17 May 2024 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Henan Jianye 2 - 3 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Super League fixture (matchday 12) (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 37% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 0.86x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Henan Jianye's last 41 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
37%
2.74
26%
3.87
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.91
1.47
Wuhan Three Towns xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
8%
11.87
9%
11.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.47 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 25W 17D 21L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Wuhan Three Towns's form line: 38W 12D 13L from 63 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Wuhan Three Towns are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Henan Jianye.
Venue Form
On home soil, Henan Jianye have posted 1.81 PPG from their last 31 home games (16W 8D 7L).
On the road, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 19W 6D 6L from their last 31 away games — 2.03 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 2.19 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Henan Jianye (Home) vs Wuhan Three Towns (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
❓ Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns Form FAQs
What form are Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 25W 17D 21L in their last 63 games (1.46 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 38W 12D 13L in their last 63 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Wuhan Three Towns's away record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.81 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Wuhan Three Towns been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Wuhan Three Towns in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Aug 2022, when Wuhan Three Towns won Henan Jianye 0-3 Wuhan Three Towns.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Wuhan Three Towns specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Henan Jianye
3
Draws
5
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Henan Jianye have won 2, Wuhan Three Towns have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Wuhan Three Towns 1-1 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 52%, Wuhan Three Towns 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Henan Jianye) and 64% (Wuhan Three Towns). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Henan Jianye's games and 64% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Henan Jianye's matches and 64% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 81% of Wuhan Three Towns's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wuhan Three Towns edge out Henan Jianye 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Henan Jianye 2-3 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.45 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.47 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.86 / defence 0.97 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.05 / defence 1.15, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 37% | Draw 26% | Wuhan Three Towns 38%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 49%, Wuhan Three Towns 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.46. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.