Qingdao Youth Island 3-5 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 77%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees SHANGHAI SIPG travel to Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium to take on Qingdao Youth Island. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 May 2024, 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, SHANGHAI SIPG stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 0.56 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.584 / defence 0.978 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.552 / defence 0.628. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.524. Qingdao Youth Island's attack strength of 0.584 is below the league average — the 0.56 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence strength of 0.628 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. SHANGHAI SIPG have an above-average attack strength of 1.552 — the away xG of 2.31 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 Qingdao Youth Island games / 40 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 7% | Draw 16% | SHANGHAI SIPG 77%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 14.29 | Draw 6.25 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1.30. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (77%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 77% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 7% | Draw 16% | SHANGHAI SIPG 77% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 39% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 0.56 / SHANGHAI SIPG 2.31 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.584 / def 0.978 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.552 / def 0.628 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.524 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.56
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
2.31
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
39%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Qingdao Youth Island 3 - 5 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 7% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 77% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. SHANGHAI SIPG away split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Qingdao Youth Island's attacking strength (0.58x league average) is weighed against SHANGHAI SIPG's defensive record (0.63x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.56. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Qingdao Youth Island's defence, projects 2.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-3 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
7%
14.20
16%
6.23
77%
1.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
0 – 3
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.56
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
2.87
2.31
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
14.20
7%
Home win
6.23
16%
Draw
1.30
77%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.60
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
10%
10.09
57%
1.74
Win to Nil
1%
143.39
44%
2.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 13.1 | 15.2 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 3.1 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 0.56 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 2.31 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Pre-Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Mar 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Youth Island's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Qingdao Youth Island
2
Draws
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 6 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 1, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 2-1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Youth Island and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
SHANGHAI SIPG cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over Qingdao Youth Island.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Qingdao Youth Island 3-5 at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 0.56 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.31 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 2.31 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.58 / defence 0.98 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.55 / defence 0.63, drawn from 11/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 7% | Draw 16% | SHANGHAI SIPG 77%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 77%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.