Hebei Zhongji 1-4 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hebei Zhongji vs Dalian Aerbin encounter.

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Full Analysis

Wuyuan River Stadium plays host to Hebei Zhongji versus Dalian Aerbin in Super League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Wednesday 30 November 2022 at 11:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Hebei Zhongji have collected 0.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 0W 0D 10L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 3.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Hebei Zhongji have posted 1W 0D 9L at Wuyuan River Stadium — 0.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 3.90 conceded per game.

Dalian Aerbin's overall Super League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Dalian Aerbin's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

On a straight form reading, Dalian Aerbin are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Hebei Zhongji 2W, Dalian Aerbin 1W, 0D.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Dalian Aerbin winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Hebei Zhongji goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.

Dalian Aerbin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 41% versus Dalian Aerbin 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hebei Zhongji 57% | Dalian Aerbin 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 1.08 xG and Dalian Aerbin 2.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.667 / defence 2.105 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.874 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.384. Hebei Zhongji's attack strength of 0.667 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Hebei Zhongji games / 41 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 14% | Draw 18% | Dalian Aerbin 69%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 7.14 | Draw 5.56 | Dalian Aerbin 1.45. The model has a clear lean to Dalian Aerbin (69%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.08 / 2.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.63 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hebei Zhongji 50% | Dalian Aerbin 40%.

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